Exponential Smoothing for Time Series Forecasting in Data Science

The statistical method most frequently used to predict a time series is called Exponential Smoothing. Utilizing the exponential window function, we employ this simple yet effective forecasting technique to smooth univariate time series data.

How Does Exponential Smoothing Work?

An approach to forecasting univariate time series data uses exponential Smoothing. According to the theory behind time series approaches, a prediction is a weighted linear sum of previous observations or lags. The exponential smoothing time series approach operates by giving historical observations weights that are exponentially diminishing. It is so named because the weight given to each demand observation decreases exponentially.

The model makes the assumption that the near future will resemble the recent past in some ways. Exponential Smoothing only picks up on one pattern from demand history: its level, or the average value, around which demand varies over time.

On the basis of user-made previous assumptions, such as seasonality or systematic tendencies, exponential Smoothing is typically used to anticipate time-series data.

Forecasting with Exponential Smoothing

For short-term projections, exponential Smoothing is a form of forecasting that is generally accurate. The method gives more weights to more recent observations while giving weights that diminish exponentially as the observations go further apart. Long-term projections made using this method have a modest reliability issue.

The best time to use exponential Smoothing is when the time series parameters change slowly over time.

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Various Exponential Smoothing Methods

The principal categories of exponential smoothing forecasting techniques are Exponential smoothing techniques.

Smoothing that is basic or single exponential

With univariate data that lacks a trend or a seasonal pattern, simple or single exponential Smoothing (SES) is the time series forecasting technique employed. Alpha (a), often known as the smoothing factor, is the only necessary parameter. The exponential decay of the influence of previous observations is controlled by alpha. A value between 0 and 1 is frequently chosen for the parameter.

Double Exponential Smoothing

This approach is often referred to as second-order exponential Smoothing or Holt's trend model. Double exponential smoothing is applied to time-series forecasting when the data exhibits a linear trend but no seasonal pattern. The fundamental idea behind this is to offer a word that can account for the potential of the series displaying some trend.

A second smoothing is required for double exponential Smoothing in addition to the alpha value.

Triple Exponential Smoothing

When the data has linear trends and seasonal patterns, this technique, the most advanced form of exponential Smoothing, is used to forecast time series. Level smoothing, trend smoothing, and seasonal Smoothing are the three applications of exponential Smoothing made by the method. A new smoothing parameter called gamma (g) is used to reduce the impact of the seasonal component.

Holt-Winters Exponential Smoothing, after its creators Charles Holt and Peter Winters, is the name of the triple exponential smoothing technique.

Best Way To Set Up Exponential Smoothing

Analysts must specifically provide each model hyperparameter to configure Exponential Smoothing. For both novices and professionals, this can be difficult.

Instead, it is usual to practice employing numerical optimization to find and fund the smoothing factors (alpha, beta, gamma, and phi) for the model with the smallest possible error.

An exponential smoothing approach can derive such values by inferring values for unknown parameters from the observed data. By reducing the sum of the squared errors, the beginning values and unknown parameters can be calculated (SSE).

For example, whether they are additive or multiplicative or whether they need to be muted, the characteristics that define the type of trend change or seasonality must be precisely specified.

What distinguishes exponential Smoothing from the moving Average?

For time series forecasting, two key methods include moving average and exponential Smoothing.

While exponential Smoothing applies the exponential window function to the data, moving average filters out random noise from the data.

While methods under the exponential smoothing process help against the trend and seasonality components of time series, methods under the moving average smoothing process are focused on the values with their timings. Current values are the primary focus of the exponential moving Average.

While Exponential Smoothing gives aging observations progressively decreasing weights, Moving Average gives the past observations an equal weight. Simply said, fresh observations are weighted more heavily than older ones in forecasting.

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