Stephen King Predicted the Rise of Amazon

Ellis Boyd 'Red' Redding, the narrator Stephen King chooses for the Shawshank Redemption, describes himself as a "regular Sears and Roebuck". He also reflects that there is probably a con like him in every prison, although I'm not sure how Sears would react to that characterization of their function. Red manages the delicate chain of intermediaries necessary to smuggle contraband into Shawshank and divert it to customers without detection by prison guards or other prisoners interested in sabotage. Before we see how King predicted Amazon, it may be helpful to examine more closely the margins of the Shawshank Sears.

In Andy's first interaction with anyone in the prison, he approaches Red to inquire into purchasing a rock hammer to indulge his hobby. Andy's transaction with Red is interesting because, along with an insight into Red's margins, it affords an opportunity to deduce the implicit value of cigarettes in Shawshank, and compare with the actual value of cigarettes at that time. When Red asks Andy the cost of a rock hammer for a reference point in quoting a price, Andy tells Red it costs about 7 dollars. Presumably, Red would eventually verify this himself through his outside contact, and would most likely come back to Andy if the actual cost was greater (but not necessarily if it was less). However, assuming that Andy is accurate in his pricing of the rock hammer, Red's price of ten dollars includes his standard markup of 20% (2 dollars) plus an additional $1 for the higher risk of the item. Assuming that Red splits the additional 10% margin between himself and his contacts (despite the fact that his contacts and Andy ultimately bear the risk if the contraband is somehow detected or intercepted), Red earns $1.50 on the transaction, and the intermediaries together earn $1.50.

We see three middlemen between the outside world and the rock hammer landing in Andy's cell. The first is the most important participant- the delivery driver who diverts the package containing the rock hammer to the prisoner responsible for delivering bedding on the pretext of moving the unloading of the truck along at a reasonable pace. We don't see how much this man in the yellow shirt receives and whether it is cash or cigarettes, but he most likely receives the most of the three middlemen since he is the only one who is not a prisoner, and he represents the point of contact with the outside world. A clue that the bribe might be in cigarettes for him as well emerges as he offers a smoke to the prison guard, presumably to gain just a little more distraction as the parcels are brought into the prison.

The second intermediary is the prisoner who hands out bedrolls. This individual takes the bedroll containing the rock hammer and diverts it to Red for the price of two packs of cigarettes. The last link is Brooks Hatlen, who gives the parcel to Andy included in his compulsory "book". One can't help but wonder if Andy got the idea of a hollowed out Bible as a hiding spot for his rock hammer from its initial method of delivery.  Or, whether that rock hammer was in the Bible that the warden almost forgot to hand back to Andy when they tossed his cell looking for contraband. Upon returning the Bible to Andy, the warden remarked that salvation lies within, and Andy inscribed this message for the warden to read after Andy's escape. The warden never realized how literally Andy was applying this message.   In any case, we also see that Brooks' cut for being the final link in the chain is a pack of cigarettes.

With the information of the bedroll custodian's cut (2 packs) and Brooks' cut (1 pack), we can estimate the delivery driver's piece. I estimate he would make at least as much as the other two combined, as his job is the most critical and he lives in the outside world and not prison. Let's call it 4 packs of cigarettes. That brings the total cost of Red's intermediaries for this transaction to 7 packs of cigarettes. Dividing the $1.50 earned by the intermediaries collectively by the 7 packs of cigarettes equals an implicit value of about 21 cents per pack. This ties in approximately to the actual value of cigarettes in 1947 (.18/pack) plus a small markup. After all, if the commissary sold cigarettes at a price too far above the outside world, it would offer people like Red the opportunity for arbitrage.

These margins are probably higher than Sears' was for most items, but Sears has the distinct advantage of being able to sell at much larger volumes, and without fear of anyone intercepting contraband. As the movie progresses, Andy begins to share with Red his hopes for a life outside prison. He enlists Red's help as he will need someone who "knows how to get things" to get his bed and breakfast and touring boat up and running. Red's response is that he wouldn't know where to begin, and anybody could just use the Yellow Pages. However, Red misses the point of Andy's feeler which is that Andy is looking for a personal connection to help him navigate the outside world. This sets up one of the many conflicts examined in Shawshank, namely hope (as represented by Andy) vs. institutionalization (as represented by Brooks and Red). In the context of the analogy of Red as Sears, Andy represents the consumer.

In the new world of e-commerce, the consumer was looking for a familiar face to help guide them through the maze of choices. Sears was perfectly positioned to handle this demand, with enormous distribution networks already in place and experience in mailing products to consumers through their mail-order catalog. Indeed, on a smaller scale this represents the Yellow Pages Red referenced. However, in the world without walls of e-commerce, Sears failed to answer the consumer's call.

Sears was an American institution by virtue of their experience operating brick-and-mortar stores and their mail-order catalog. However, in Sears' case this also created a mindset of institutionalization and a defeatist attitude toward functioning outside the prison walls of a brick-and-mortar store. They instead sought to increase cost efficiency at their existing stores, which created image/quality issues and further entrenched them in the old paradigm of brick and mortar.

What saves Red during his initial despair in negotiating an existence outside prison (the same job bagging groceries and the same depressing room as Brooks) is the promise Andy extracted from him to pay a visit to the Maine cornfield with the huge oak tree. By keeping his promise and accepting Andy's invitation to Zihuatanejo, Red is meeting Andy on Andy's terms. This is what Amazon did that Sears failed to do.

The evolution of Red's initial defeatist response to meeting Andy at Zihuatanejo represents the progress of instutionalization to hope, of Sears to Amazon. Amazon was founded in July 1994. The release of the Shawshank Redemption in theaters was October 1994. And what did Amazon start out selling? BOOKS- the same mechanism used by Red to smuggle contraband to prisoners.

In chronicling Andy's and Red's (Shawshank's Sears and Roebuck) triumph of hope over institutionalization, King foretold the triumph of Amazon in an arena Sears was perfectly poised to dominate.