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Carer and social care roles are projected to remain among the most in-demand occupations in England through 2026, driven by structural shortages, an aging population, and policy changes that restrict international recruitment. The care sector is adapting to a shortage of workers while also becoming more professionalised and better paid than during previous years.
Key Demand Trends for 2026
1. Strong Demand in Adult Social Care
England's adult social care workforce grew by 2.2% in 2025, with over 1.6 million posts filled; however, vacancy rates remain around three times higher than the national average (around 6.4%). The UK's Skills for Care report estimates that 470,000 more posts will be needed by 2040 due to an expanding elderly population and higher levels of chronic illness.
2. Decline in International Recruitment
Following restrictions on the Health and Care Worker visa route introduced in mid 2025, new migrant care hires dropped sharply from 105,000 in 2023/24 to 44,000 in 2024/25. This shift is expected to increase domestic recruitment pressures and shift focus toward training British workers.
3. Professionalisation and Skills Gaps
The care industry is emphasizing training and qualifications, moving toward a more professionalised model. Despite this, only 38% of care workers currently hold a Level 2 qualification, down from 41% a year prior, highlighting skill shortages.
Outlook
Carer jobs in England will remain among the top growth sectors in 2026, but pressure will increase on employers to fill roles domestically. The focus will shift toward training, upskilling, and retaining home-grown workers, with rising opportunities in home care, mental health support, and senior care positions.