What Biden vs Trump II means for World

As India prepares for polls, another election is looming in the United States (US). The presumptive presidential candidates are incumbent Joe Biden, a Democrat, and former president Donald Trump, a Republican. Public opinion surveys currently give Trump a slight edge, with voters expressing dissatisfaction with Biden's age and his handling of inflation, border security, and West Asia policy. But Biden's campaign believes that factors such as the strong performance of the economy, low unemployment, debt relief, and Trump's legal woes could reverse the tide by November, when people go to the polls.

At this early stage, predicting the outcome of the US presidential election is futile. The result in all but a handful of states is already a foregone conclusion, and the overall result may well be determined by about six crucial "swing states" and less than a million votes. Nonetheless, it would be prudent for observers to start anticipating policy implications. While many areas might witness policy continuity or greater transactionalism on the part of Washington, trade and immigration policy could see some dramatic changes.

In truth, on several issues, there has been significant continuity over the past eight years under both Trump and Biden. One, China is increasingly understood as the US's foremost strategic competitor, leading to shifts in US domestic, economic, and security policy in the Indo-Pacific. Two, the US believes it should no longer offer non-reciprocal market access in the spirit of neo-liberalism or globalisation. Trade deals that do not tilt the playing field in the US's favour are completely out of the question. Three, the US body politic is firmly against direct and open-ended military expeditions, which critics decry as "forever wars". Four, despite complications, the US has mostly stood firm in its support for Israel and the Gulf Arab States.