Before 24 Billion and Counting

Chapter 3 Part 2 Preparing for the press. A premonition of peril.

But I still needed an answer to a question, "Do you think NASA will leak or attempt some form of cover up?" 

Will said, "I am not sure. I have programmed their computer direct and kept the problem anonymous, but it will result in a bill for computer time which I will have to explain to our own board, and as you know NASA have a seat on it. I do not see being able to keep it from them, and after what we have discussed I do not see it matters. We all had reached the same conclusion; someone else will discover the thing sooner or later, and, if we do not know exactly, what danger there is in the comet we had best be honest and hope that everyone will behave like an adult." 

I smiled at Will's unjustified hope, "I don't think we can anticipate much that is adult in the circumstances, but at least all the media can do here and now is plead for the scientists to do better research and calculation to refine the odds. That may even get you more resources to do it. Play it any other way and instead of, in their eyes, being merely an incompetent bunch of nice open and honest guys bringing bad news now, you will be a set of secretive and villainous scientists bringing them bad news much too late to do anything about it." 

"Alright", said Jacob,"I think we have a consensus on being honest. Charles - can you put us together a story that you'd be prepared to spend the time on - or should we go to someone else?" 

I had to think a bit about moving towards a journalistic story. The time consumed in the publicity and hype that could attach itself to this could be extreme. However an idea formed in my mind. "Is there some way we could put together one of our more normal programmes on the general topic of comets or interplanetary debris or some such, and Rosetta would be only part of the story. Just throw in the funny orbit as an interesting phenomenon yet to be investigated further. That at least could give some more time without being accused of being either alarmist or secretive. Until the orbit is established when you've done your sums there is always the possibility that your calculations are inaccurate. I think I'm saying let's be honest but treat it as normal, not something to make too special an issue. There are more pressing matters after all, like ICBM's that look as though they can explode spontaneously." 

"I like the idea." said Ellen, "If we're asked about it before the programme goes out we can say we're putting it together, and we control the context with what else we put into it. What do you say Will?" 

As always, Will was cautious, testing his thoughts and feelings against the logic that his trained mathematical brain always fell back on. "It is not as clear cut as you originally put forward Charles - you said be honest, and I thought you meant publishing a full scientific explanation of what we have found. Not one of your dog and pony shows for the press and public." 

I replied, "Will, please understand that the problems to avoid are not caused by your peers who will see the underlying mathematical truths, but by journalists. Their sympathetic understanding of the difficulty of forecasting the future will be zero. You mention the word chaotic uncertainty and they'll treat it as incompetence. Serve Rosetta up now as another problem we want to understand, and the difficulty of predicting the probability of a somewhat exotic widget that scientists find interesting, and the dear old public is likely concentrate on the only probabilistic computation of real interest to them and that's who's going to win the jackpot in the national lottery." 

Jacob intervened, "Will, I know you find it distasteful, but we're dealing with humanity in bulk. Charles and I have a lot more experience of the extraordinary lack of education in science that most people have, and how to explain things in that context." 

With added vehemence he emphasised, "Jesus, surely you know how, potential university students regard courses in engineering or science these days. Science is blamed as totally responsible for world problems, and then any failure to solve them. Let's ease everyone into this gradually and at a pace that at least allows us to be more confident of our facts as we go along, and minimises hype and the tension. Now can we please say that we're all agreed on the policy. Even though we all accept the result may lack some scientific erudition." This last was said with a rueful smile to Will, and as usual when he set out to charm his close friends he was very persuasive.