"sir the Freshers hv arrived for the interview..."...said the secretary named Manoj...
"Ask them to cm inside...we will start the interview after 10mins!!"....said the CEO Mr Kishore aggarwal...
Thus Manoj nodded in a yes and came out from his cabin...
*****
The interview started...and the Freshers started giving their interview...
But unfortunately none of them was capable to woo the CEO's mind...
After taking 5-6 interviews...Kishore was literally pissed off when a guy approximately 27yrs of age...entered his cabin abruptly and huffed...
"May I cm in sir!!"...he said adjusting his laptop bag...
Thus Kishore looked upto him...and frowned seeing him from top to bottom...
Clad in white shirt...with black trousers and formal shoes...he was standing there wearing his rounded specs...
His hair was combed nicely...with oil...whereas he had a small moustache between his nose and lips...
He smiled showing his 32teeths...in a very odd way...thus Kishore looked at him twisting his lips...
"Good mrng sir...may I cm in!!??"...he asked...
"Firstly u r already in!! Secondly...get out!!"...said Kishore... concentrating on his computer...
While other delegates started murmuring about each other....
The guy looked down...and was about to go outside when Kishore asked a question to the Fresher who was already giving him the interview by then...
"So how can we manage the productivity...if we find that the market shares r dropping??"...asked Kishore...
The guy who was giving the interview...was already in nervousness....and the way by which the Kishore asked the question was something more...which increased his palpitations...
He gulped, he rubbed away his sweat drops forming in the forehead, he drank some water...
And then he started stammering out of nervousness...
Thus Kishore again felt disappointed seing his performance...
"If you look at a broad market index, such as the S&P 500, then if you wait long enough, then the market has always recovered and gone on to higher values. This has been true for the last 145 years.
If you look at individual stocks, or even a portfolio of a 5 or 10 stocks, then the answer is, maybe, but not necessarily.
The S&P 500 total return index, has never ended lower than when it started over any 20 year period in the last 145 years. Here's a graph of 20 year returns, calculated monthly, starting with the period from Jan 1871 - Jan 1891, and ending with the 20 period Dec 1995 to Dec 2015.
At no time does the total return ever go negative. This includes the 20 year period from October 1929 to October 1949, the worst 20 years in stock market history.
Here's a similar graph, but this time showing 10 year returns.
And now we see 3 periods with negative returns, once very briefly in 1932, then from May 1938 to Mar 1941 - corresponding to the period roughly 10 years after the market peak in 1929, and finally between Nov 2008 and Oct 2010, once again roughly 10 years after the market peak of 1999. However, out of a sample of 1,621 months, you would only have lost money after a 10 year holding period of an S&P 500 index in 51 of those months, or a little over a 3% chance of losing money if you pick any 10 year stretch at random and 7 year returns are only slightly worse with only 3.7% of the 7 year stretches being losers over the 145 year history.
You have to shorten the hold time to 5 years before you have a better than 10% chance of losing money (11% actually), and there's a 28% chance of not breaking even after one year.
So if you are invested in an S&P 500 ETF chances are very good that your investment will have recovered by 7 - 10 years after a crash, and will have gone on to higher value.
Here's another way to look at it based on analyzing average monthly stock market returns by pegging the high water mark just before a downturn and then counting the months until you recover to the previously set high water mark.
In this case, we're looking at all monthly down turns, not just crashes. So, in a sense, this is like somehow magically 'freezing' our investment value when the market goes negative and then waiting for the market to recover before setting a new high water mark.
If we do this analysis we discover that most downturns recover remarkably quickly
A little more than 1/3 of the downturns recover within a month, and a little over half in 2 months. In fact, a little over 80% of them recover within a year, and by 3 years, you've gotten back to even 95% of the time.
The average time to break even is 7.9 months.
It's those outliers you have to watch out for. The longest time to break even was 15.25 years, from Sept. 1929 to Dec. 1944!"...explained the boy clad in white shirt thus Kishore was spellbound...
Not only Kishore but every interviewer was astonished seing the boy...who explained the whole thing...steadily...and casually...!!
After sometime...Kishore got up from his chair...and went towards him...buttoning up his coat...
"Did I asked u for an explanation...??"..asked Kishore...
"No sir!!"...the boy said adjusting his specs looking down...
"Then what r u trying to prove??"...asked Kishore...
"Nothing as such sir...it's just that I knew the answer...I saw that he was not able to reply the same so I thought of answering the question...!! If u hv felt anything wrong then plz pardon me!! But plz atleast give me a chance to give an interview...I really need it!!"...he begged...sadly...
Kishore thought something and looked at the delegates...who were gossiping about that particular guy only...and he was sure about it...
He was also sure that they were discussing about his capabilities...!!
He thought again and looked at the guy angrily...
On the other hand...the guy accepted his defeat he was about to leave the place...when Kishore said..."wait a sec!!"...
Thus he stopped his pace and looked at him...
"Before leaving the ofc...take your offer letter from the receptionist...as u hv to join my ofc from this week onwards...and yes don't be late on the first day!!"...he said...thus everyone looked at him with an awful expression...
"Thank u...thank u so much sir!! I will definitely follow your words!!"...said the guy...
Kishore was about to leave the place...when his hand collided with the guy...and all his docs which was in a file fell down from his hands...due to the sudden jerk...
Kishore's eyes fell on his id proof card...which was also there in the file...
"Dheer Singh!!"...he mumbled seing his id card...
"Yes sir!!"...the guy replied sincerely...while collecting his essentially...thus Kishore looked at him with a frown...
"Am sorry sir... actually I didn't see!!"...said the guy...
"I must say...that your eyesight is poor!! Consult an eye specialist...before joining this ofc!!"...Kishore taunted while leaving the place...while dheer remained there gawking at his retreating figure thus smiling inwardly!!
Thank u...
(Guys today I got a bit free time so I thought of posting this ff...
Like this whenever I will get free time I will definitely try to post my ffs)
(And one more thing i am participating in writing challenge so plz support my new ss (AASHIYAAN) based on Sandhir...as I need Maximum amount of votes and comments for it...(be it small or big)
Will wait for your review!!😘😘)
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