George and Eternity and other short stories and fortune telling

Cold Fusion - Does it stand a chance?

THE RECENT CLAIMS for the discovery of fusion at room temperatures by Drs. Pons and Fleischmann raise some interesting questions and possibilities for the future, assuming of course, that the claims prove to be justified.

If fusion is indeed what they have found, or even a new form of chemical energy, then the potential benefits for mankind are enormous. Such an energy producing process is relatively clean, and does not result in pollutants such as carbon monoxide, carbon dioxide, acid rain and long half-life radiation. Large-scale use of this new form of energy generation would be a lifesaver for the ecology of the planet, giving us a real chance to reverse the damage already done to the environment.

Secondly, it would seem likely that a new age of cheap power would dawn, something that would not only help the development of the third world, but also would help with the American budget deficit, not to mention ours [the UK's]. It would see domestic and commercial energy bills cut drastically, which would benefit rich and poor alike. Clearly, in order for the Third World to develop to anywhere near our living standards, such a new energy source is essential. Last year, America, with about a twentieth of the world's population, accounted for 43 per cent of the world's oil — there is not enough left for the rest of the world to reach as high a standard of living as the U.S. whatever forms of energy conservation are applied.

Dr Hagelstein of MIT has already applied mathematics and quantum mechanics to the idea of deuterium fusing to form helium-4 in this fusion process, setting up hypotheses to see where they lead, and this has led to fusion driven lasers, small fusion generators, reverse fusion and new, exotic fusion reactions. The idea of suitcase-sized power stations may excite, but the real revolution would be small fusion generators.

Provided that such generators were small enough, say the size of an internal combustion engine or less, and were relatively cheap to make and service (presumably heavy water and palladium and platinum electrodes would not be that expensive in the very small amounts required), it is conceivable that they could be self contained, with a solar panel input for providing the initial charge, with a life expectancy perhaps in excess of ten or twenty years. Such generators would be paramount for a swift development of the Third World, enabling power to be available cheaply, and without the transport costs or problems of fuel to consider, for industry, water pumping and agriculture.

For us, perhaps the most obvious and visible use would be as a power plant for vehicles, revolutionising the car industry, and creating a possible way out of the public transport mess that we now have. Cheaper motoring and transport, coupled with the environmental benefits make this a very attractive proposition.

However, as with any new radical idea, the test of whether there is widespread acceptance and use made of these ideas lies largely with vested interests i.e. commercial considerations. Whilst cold fusion would have one impact, the impact on industry would be quite different. Oil companies would probably suffer most, along with gas and electricity generating companies, as well as mechanical engineering — if the internal combustion engine became as outdated as the steam engine, a lot of jobs and capital plant would be made redundant. And this is the danger.

Such large corporations as oil companies wield a lot of power and influence, and it is possible these organisations may seek to inhibit the development of such a revolutionary idea. As with such ideas as the everlasting light bulb, stainless steel cars that do not rust, alcohol substitutes for petrol and so on, if these are not to the advantage of a large multi-national, they are very likely to buy up the idea or patent and sit on it, smothering the development of the new idea. With the enormous amount at stake in this issue, there is a very real likelihood that there would be major opposition to the widespread development of this new fusion process.

For better or worse, in order for this new technology to see the light of day, we may have to encourage oil companies and other affected parties to develop and commercialise the fusion process themselves, allowing them to diversify outside of oil. With care, this could be handled in a manner satisfactory to everyone, such that the new applications have a chance to breathe life, and the oil companies can conserve their stocks for essential chemical feedstocks.

Failure to take into account these implications may otherwise result in a still birth of the technology, with the result that the Third World, Mankind and the ecology of the planet will be back to square one — the squandering of resources and the world taking a step backwards rather than forwards.