@KingFabia "the match is fated to happen", arisu herself states that it was unreliable and yet it happened, it is a pure favor out of the probabilities.
also tsukishiro interfered with the chess match itself, whetever Koji and arisu are soldiers or commanders strictly change nothing, as he modified the imput, the only thing that change is the expulsion risk for the losing commander, but again the protection point cancels such a risk.
Finally, Tsukishiro wanted arisu to follow his plan, and not give Ayanokouji a Protection Point, hence rendering any possibilites of a safe 1v1 null, arisu betraying tsukishiro by confering koji this shield point was the best decision, and what entails your argument, foresight wise, relates to wishful thinking, and not proper cause & effect reasoning hence it does remain false, sorry.