Forcasting
A basic input in the decision processes of operations management because they provide information on future demand.
supply
The primary goal of operations management is to match ___ to demand.
forecasts
Anticipated demand is derived from two possible sources, actual customer orders and ___.
Short
___-term forecasts pertain to ongoing operations.
Long
___-term forecasts pertain to new products or services, new equipment, new facilities, or something else that will require a somewhat long lead time to develop, construct, or otherwise implement.
yield
Forecasting is also an important component of ___ management, which relates to the percentage of capacity being used.
use
The two uses for forecasts is to help managers plan the system, and the other is to help them plan the ___ of the system.
Forecasting
___ techniques generally assume that the same underlying causal system that existed in the past will continue to exist in the future.
accurate
Forecasts for groups of items tend to be more ___ than forecasts for individual items because forecasting errors among items in a group usually have a canceling effect.
decreases
Forecast accuracy ___ as the time period covered by the forecast—the time horizon—increases.
timely
Properly prepared forecasts should be ___, accurate, reliable, meaningful units (dependent on user needs), in writing (consistent for everyone reading), simple (in understanding and use), and cost effective (benefits outweighing costs).
accurate
Properly prepared forecasts should be timely, ___, reliable, meaningful units (dependent on user needs), in writing (consistent for everyone reading), simple (in understanding and use), and cost effective (benefits outweighing costs).
reliable
Properly prepared forecasts should be timely, accurate, ___, meaningful units (dependent on user needs), in writing (consistent for everyone reading), simple (in understanding and use), and cost effective (benefits outweighing costs).
meaningful units
Properly prepared forecasts should be timely, accurate, reliable, ___(dependent on user needs), in writing (consistent for everyone reading), simple (in understanding and use), and cost effective (benefits outweighing costs).
writing
Properly prepared forecasts should be timely, accurate, reliable, meaningful units (dependent on user needs), in ___ (consistent for everyone reading), simple (in understanding and use), and cost effective (benefits outweighing costs).
simple
Properly prepared forecasts should be timely, accurate, reliable, meaningful units (dependent on user needs), in writing (consistent for everyone reading), ___ (in understanding and use), and cost effective (benefits outweighing costs).
cost
Properly prepared forecasts should be timely, accurate, reliable, meaningful units (dependent on user needs), in writing (consistent for everyone reading), simple (in understanding and use), and ___ effective (benefits outweighing costs).
purpose
The 6 basic steps of forecasting: Determine ___; Establish time horizon; Obtain, clean, and analyze appropriate data; Select a forecasting technique;Make the forecast; and Monitor the forecast errors.
time horizon
The 6 basic steps of forecasting: Determine purpose; Establish ___ ___; Obtain, clean, and analyze appropriate data; Select a forecasting technique;Make the forecast; and Monitor the forecast errors.
appropriate data
The 6 basic steps of forecasting: Determine purpose; Establish time horizon; Obtain, clean, and analyze ___ ___; Select a forecasting technique;Make the forecast; and Monitor the forecast errors.
technique
The 6 basic steps of forecasting: Determine purpose; Establish time horizon; Obtain, clean, and analyze appropriate data; Select a forecasting ___; Make the forecast; and Monitor the forecast errors.
Make the forecast
The 6 basic steps of forecasting: Determine purpose; Establish time horizon; Obtain, clean, and analyze appropriate data; Select a forecasting technique; ___ ___ ___; and Monitor the forecast errors.
Error
___ = Actual − Forecast or:
et=At−Ft
t=given time period
Actual
Error = ___ − Forecast or:
et=At−Ft
t=given time period
Forecast
Error = Actual − ___ or:
et=At−Ft
t=given time period
mean absolute deviation (MAD)
___ ___ ___ is the average absolute error
mean squared error (MSE)
___ ___ ___ is the average of squared errors
