The Cardboard Investment

What is Prospecting?

Prospecting is an investment in unproven players cards in hopes that they increase in value in the future. This form of collecting, or calculated gambling, has been around since the market boom of the 90's and was primarily done with baseball cards because of their minor league system. With the fall of the market and the over production of cards, one would have thought that people would learn their lessons about gambling with sports cards. Topps had another idea to play into people's habits. Now with the rights to produce cards under the brand of Bowman, Topps begin printing Bowman baseball cards of players just drafted. Some of these players fresh out of high school, only 18 years old, and no professional playing experience. It could be 4 years before they made it to the major leagues, but this gave collectors the ability to purchase cards of high draft picks before they were proven players and valuable.

With the NBA formally creating its minor league system known as the G-League an opportunity for prospecting with basketball has begun to emerge. Players are graduating high school and going straight to the G-League. If a player goes to college, most are done and declare for the draft after one season if they are good enough. The NBA and the G-League is now filled with players 19 to 20 years old. Players such as Steph Curry, Kevin Durant, Lebron James, Giannis Antetokounmpo and now Luka Doncic have driven up prices of all basketball rookie cards. Who will be the next Lebron or Luka? Collectors hoard and invest thousands of dollars in cards of players they think will be the next big thing. The popularity creates a shortage of supply in new boxes and packs to open, as well as the cards available on the open market. After a new product release even retail shelves will be emptied with hours of being stocked. Those same retail products then find their way to Ebay and other card selling sites for double or even sometimes triple what they were going for at Target or Wal-mart.

The popularity of prospecting really began to take hold with a lesser known player that had his first card come out in 2001. His name was Albert Pujols. A 402nd overall pick in the 1999 draft, no one could have predicted the career he would go on to have. 2001 was also the first year that the Bowman Chrome autograph became a staple of its product line. Little hype was surrounding Pujols as he entered professional baseball and he was fortunate to be one of the players included in this first release of possibly opening a pack and pulling an autographed card. Many collectors may have gotten one and traded it for a player they actually knew and wanted. Some may have sold it for a few dollars to put towards another card they were looking for. A few lucky collectors put the card in a box and forgot about it for a few years. Now 19 years later that same card can be in your collection for a small fortune of $10,000.

Over the last two decades there have been dozens of prospects that were late round draft picks, players that collectors had never heard of, that someone found lightning in a bottle and turned their careers into something. The most famous of all of these is none other than Mike Trout. He was a late first round draft pick taken 25th overall and was not one of the overly hyper players in this draft. His 1st Bowman Chrome autograph cards could be purchased easily for the average collector when it was released. Within 3 years these same cards would begin to sell for thousands. By 2018 his most rare 2009 Bowman Chrome Superfractor Auto serial numbered 1/1 sold for $400,000.

As amazing as these returns with prospecting are, they are certainly not the norm, but they are enough of a sample size to draw in collectors with the fear of missing out. With thousands of these cards in existence per player, collectors are not deterred from investing thousands of dollars in a player fresh out of high school and only a handful of games in rookie ball. Players such as Kris Bryant, Rafael Devers, Mookie Betts, Vladimir Guerrero Jr, Fernando Tatis Jr, Ronald Acuna and many others have driven up prices of prospecting with their minor league and major league success.

Year after year, highly touted prospects create a huge market demand. Prices fluctuate up and down with a stretch of good games, or a few bad ones. Hundreds of players get drafted any year, and only a small percentage of those actually make it to the majors, an even smaller percentage of those actually end up being stars in the majors. A simple promoting from Single A to AA is enough for some players cards to double overnight. $10 cards can turn into $100 cards in a matter of one good month by a player. When I got back into the hobby in 2007 it was possible to by a pack of cards and sell one for $100. It was a rare occasion, but did happen. By 2018 you could purchase a retail pack from Target for $3 and have a better chance at getting a $300 card than you did getting a $100 card 10 years prior. The market is volatile, but the slight possibility of incredible gains is enough for thousands of people across the globe to join in this new art of prospecting.