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Last night I had a terrible dream. I dreamed the combined consequences from unsustainable resource consumption, rapid population growth and the burning of fossil fuels since the Industrial Age had set into motion a spiral of events dependent on essential interconnecting criteria. These criteria were quietly being triggered and would become the reason for Earth's global temperature rising exponentially year on year until it became 15C warmer by 2027.
But this dream with its disturbing scenario is extremely unlikely, if not completely impossible. I am not aware of any science which would support this highly improbable increase in temperature and in such a minuscule time frame. By comparison, scientists estimate the Earth was likely as much as 8C after the extinction event occurred at the end of the Permian Age, more than 250 million years ago. There are a number of theories regarding the cause of the planet's warming, however the one which holds the most credence is a vast volcanic event which set into motion an increase of CO2 to 2000ppm. The flood basalt eruptions that produced the Siberian Traps constituted one of the largest known volcanic events on Earth and covered over two million square kilometres (770,000 sq mi) with lava. The date of the Siberian Traps eruptions and the extinction event are in good agreement. In January 2011, a team, led by Stephen Grasby of the Geological Survey of Canada - Calgary, reported evidence that volcanism caused massive coal beds to ignite, possibly releasing more than three trillion tons of carbon.
This warming is believed to have triggered the release of methane gas reservoirs in the ocean floors. The resultant global warming may have caused perhaps the most severe anoxic event in the oceans' history. The Permian event caused the only known mass extinction of insects, wiping out 57% of all families and 83% of all genera; 96% of all marine species and 70% of land organisms perished, and it took an estimated 10 million years for the planet to recover. Today, scientists do not have any evidence that a similar volcanic event is in our future. Instead, they consistently and conscientiously warn us of a far more imminent threat: man-made global warming.
They theorise a vast volcanic eruption set into motion a warming of 5C. This warming eventually triggered the thawing of frozen methane gas reservoirs in the ocean floors which subsequently pushed the global temperatures up another 5C. 100% of insects, 95% of marine species and 70% of land organisms perished as a result, it took an estimated ten million years for the planet to recover from this event. Today scientists do not have any evidence a volcanic mass extinction event is in our future. The only real and tangible threat we can be scientifically certain of is global warming and the unwelcome changes to the climate and our lives it will bring.
But let us go back to my fanciful dream. I pondered what I was to understand from it, if anything. I am fully aware the situation on Earth for man (and possibly all life) is grim should we not step up to the challenges facing us regarding Earth's rapidly rising CO2 emissions. But the world of dreams are thoughts which are not subject to the laws of reason. They are fantastic imaginings made real in an illusory land. However, sometimes they have a purpose, sometimes they challenge us to view ourselves and our perceptions in a new light. As I teased apart the details of the dream looking for an underlying pattern or message, I recalled a formula: The Drake Equation.
