The Fall of Man

Part I chapter 7

Chapter 7

It is no exaggeration to state that reliable supplies of cheap oil and natural gas underlie everything we identify as a benefit of modern life. All the necessities, comforts, luxuries and miracles of our time – central heating, air conditioning, cars, airplanes, electric lighting, cheap clothing, recorded music, movies, supermarkets, power tools, hip replacement surgery, the national defense, you name it – owe their origins or continued existence in one way or another to cheap fossil fuel...

James Howard Kunstler, The Long Emergency

“For God’s sake, Arnold. Will you PLEASE give it a rest?”

“Seriously, Jo; you need to hear this. I’ve been-”

“Arnold, I’m sick of hearing about it. It’s YOUR hobby, not mine. You’re totally obsessed... with disaster movies, with the fucking planet... You obviously have no idea what’s real any more. How do you think normal people even get by every day?”

“It’s not a hobby, Joanna. It’s important. We need to-”

“NO, Arnold. I won’t listen to it anymore. You’re driving me crazy. When’s the last time we talked about anything else? Did you know that I have a six month check-up tomorrow? When’s the last time you talked to Noah at all? Jesus.”

“I just wanted to-”

“I’m going to bed. Goodnight.”

Lost in my thoughts, I watch the anaesthetising glow of moving pictures flicker across Noah’s face, tanning his whitewashed skin and saturating his empty eyes. In the boy’s glazed expression, I am reminded once again of the distinct absence of life emanated by Joanna’s frail body, when we found her crumpled like a broken spider in the bathroom upstairs. Here, in our home, I have crafted for my son the perfect prison cell; comfortable yet cruel, isolated yet toxic. We are lost in an empty world, as though drifting far out at sea. Day follows day in a blur of inactive isolation. We sleep, we breathe and we eat. But we are not contributing to anything; nothing meaningful can result. As I drape a blanket over his small, inert frame, I cannot help but wonder whether we are really even living...

The end of the age of oil is a long-standing threat of epic proportions. It is an inevitable reality that has been deliberately disguised and hidden from public view. Marion King Hubbert, a highly regarded American geophysicist, first explained in 1949 that there was a finite supply of oil available, and that the global limits were not far in the future. If demand continues at today’s rates, and all of the remaining oil is easy to obtain, it should last another thirty years or so. This is, however, an impossibility given the rate at which developing nations are becoming industrialised. Current thinking suggests that the peak in delivered oil supply has already passed.

With the peak behind us, our descent down the other side of the curve is sure to be slick. Oil will rapidly become increasingly scarce. More than half of the remaining reserves now lie in unstable regions like the Middle East. Much of it is located in inaccessible places such as deep under the ocean. It will be more difficult and therefore more expensive to obtain. A significant proportion may never be extracted, because this would require the expense of more energy than the fuel itself would yield.

However, the peak in oil supply will be difficult to spot. The petrochemical conglomerates will drive consumption right down to the last profitable drop, in order to sustain an industry that has no long term future. As a result, when the wave finally breaks, the rate at which demand outstrips supply will be nothing short of catastrophic. The market for oil will be dominated by those buyers who are able to afford it. Initially, developing countries must lose out. However, as the developed nations fail to curb their appetites, squabbles, conflicts and eventually wars will arise with increasing regularity. America squats, entrenched, in the Middle East with good reason. The last days of the age of oil are likely to be a very messy business.

And so humankind must face up to an environmental and economic catastrophe of our own making. At least in the Western world, we have a small amount of time and resources with which to prepare for the changes that will follow. Perhaps the most disheartening part of this prospect is that up until now, the knowledge of impending global doom has not stopped, or even slowed, our consumption of fossil fuels. It is difficult to predict whether impending fuel shortages or heightened global warming will be the first consequence to have a major impact on our lifestyles. Either way, the outcome is likely to be the same… Between them, these two impending man-made disasters will radically alter the ways in which we live as a civilisation.