Am I Barry Pyramid?

Difficult Second Album Syndrome

When Lee arrived in Australia Gary wasn't home as he was still away chestnutting. Arriving two days later covered in chestnut tree scratches he could hardly get through the door before Lee was sticking new music in his ears. The centerpiece of the new musical offerings was an EP of four tracks that Lee had called Mixing With The Stars which contained three cover versions. It also contained an early version of what would later become the Kettlecup track Racketball.

Lee was pleased to find out that Gary had new tracks too. The members discussed taking a road trip and decided to make a concept album about the trip. They bought a cheap mic and recorded various sounds: a pelican crossing, kids in a playground, bird sounds and whatever else they could capture.  Lee thought that they had made a mutual decision to record everything but Gareth was privately somewhat concerned that recording everything might be considered slightly unhinged, especially by the various members of the public that were being recorded without permission.

Dunc and Gary had adjusted to the low energy barbecue culture of Australia taking coastal walks, examining rock pools and spending days on Manly beach. Gary discovered snorkeling and was particularly fascinated by squid, often spending hours watching them go about their daily business.

Conversely Lee so far in his short time there regarded the Australians and their culture with a ferocious disdain. As a vegetarian with an aversion to direct sunlight who enjoyed visiting modern art exhibitions, a barbecue was never his social activity of choice. Apart from recording sounds and taking a road trip in order to make a road trip concept album the only other thing he was interested in or had expressed any enthusiasm for was a forthcoming multi-disco in Sydney's abandoned Olympic stadium. Unfortunately, he could not generate any enthusiasm for the event among his friends as they considered the seventy-dollar entry fee prohibitively expensive.

Whilst working on the chestnut farm Gary had heard of a gambling system called "doubling up", the pros of which were simple to explain and could be grasped by almost anyone. The cons were harder to explain, harder to understand and frankly of little interest to most risk bearing individuals. The system explained in the simplest way possible is as follows:

1) Start with the minimum bet on a 50/50 bet such as red or black.
2) If you lose, double your stake for the next bet.
3) If you win bet again using the minimum stake.

Using this method, you will always eventually win an amount that returns your stake, an equal amount in winnings and enough to recoup any losses since your last win. You always win in the long run, the only way you could lose is if you hit enough losses in a row to run out of money and to be unable to continue which is unlikely, or so the theory goes.

The problem is that hitting eight or nine reds in a row is more common than you think, and after doubling your stake nine times you will be betting over five hundred times more than you started with. In the short term it might seem like the system is working and foolproof but in the long term you will always eventually lose what you have built up in winnings unless you remember to quit while you are ahead. All of the above assumes genuine 50/50 odds so there is also the issue of the roulette number zero which is neither red or black and tweaks the odds in the casino's favour.

On the chestnut farm Gary had only been told the first part about how the system works and had to figure out the rest for himself. After a series of failures, he had worked out that he hadn't after all been initiated into an underground secret society able to exploit a flaw in the rules of probability and enjoy unlimited money. The truth was much simpler: this system, like all gambling systems simply does not work.

Gary was relishing the opportunity to demonstrate his grasp of the pros and cons of the system as he began to explain it to Lee, who quickly grasped the first part about how the system works. Unfortunately, Lee seemed to not understand or even listen to the second part about how the system fails and he quite quickly adopted the demeanour of a man on his way to a casino via a cashpoint. Gary tried to explain the shortcomings of the system but was fighting a losing battle as Lee seemed to believe they had chanced upon the holy grail of gambling systems; simple, foolproof and somehow undetected by an industry as old as humanity and dedicated to understanding and exploiting the rules of probability. Lee could not let anything stand in his way; in his mind they were already rich, Gary Money had done it again! Gary himself had mixed feelings about the situation, he wanted to win the argument but he also had a strong curiosity to see how far his friend would get before failing.