Atmospheric

Part 1 - Witches

Author's note.  Thank you for reading, voting, following and adding, 'ATMOSPHERICS' to your reading list or library.   Dunc MacPhun 2024 August 20.

 This book is one of a series published as Who the Hell are We? You can find all books at https://www.wattpad.com/user/duncmacphun or type MACPHUN  into the search panel.

In 2023, electricity provided less than 20% of global energy and, contrary to expectations, the planet is not decarbonizing.

Also in 2023, coal production increased to a record of over 9 billion tonnes while natural gas production was 4000 billion cubic meters. (also a record). Crude oil had increased by more than one million barrels per day for each of the past ten years (except for 2020).

In 1990, human activity emitted about 23 billion tonnes of CO2. By 2019, annual emissions had increased to about 35 billion tonnes.

In 2023, China emitted 32% of global CO2 while the USA emited13% and Canada 1.5%.

Globally, coal, the most intensive source of CO2, was burnt to produce 196 (exajoules) of electricity while natural gas provided 164 EJ and oil 196 EJ for a total of 81.4% of global energy. Nuclear and hydroelectricity provided 25 and 40 EJ respectively while energy from wind, solar and biomass provided only 51 EJ (8% of the total).

The temperature of the atmosphere has been increasing at an average rate of 0.1 Celsius per decade and the hottest year on record was 2023!

The temperature of the atmosphere has been increasing at an average rate of 0.1 Celsius per decade.  This is presumed to be caused by carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions but this cause and effect assumption could be the reverse (the temperature rise is causing an increase in CO2).  It could also be coincidental.  

CO2 was selected as the cause and the fossil fuel energy industry (mainly responsible for the wealthiest global civilization in history) got the blame! But a graph comparing temperature and atmospheric CO2 shows no correlation over the past 500 million years, which suggests that the amount of CO2 may not directly affect the temperature.

There are other factors involved; notably the Sun's output of radiation.  This is remarkably steady but it does vary slightly, over 11-year cycle, and this is sufficient to affect Earth's climate. The Sun's energy output will be increasing with the current solar cycle until it reaches a maximum in 2025.

On January 2022 the underwater eruption of Tonga's Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai volcano. The molten magma vaporized ocean water that exploded into a high pressure geyser of super heated steam. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) estimated this injected a record 150 million tons of seawater; some of it reaching an altitude of 57 km, well past the stratosphere and into the mesosphere.  

The eruption was recorded by a CCTV  camera.  Near  the end, the visibility is zero but the camera records the aftermath.   https://youtu.be/5urH5Vfi5eM 

And, water vapour is a strong greenhouse gas that may remain in the stratosphere for at least five years while increasing global temperatures. 

 Another factor is El Niño, a reoccurring phenomenon when the  Pacific ocean surface water heats up. This warms the atmosphere and reverses ocean currents which alter global weather patterns.

 Current conditions (in 2024) indicate that the climate will experience the first strong El Niño since 2016.  A strong El Niño, combined with the solar maximum and the effects of the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai eruption, all added to CO2 emissions would cause even higher global temperatures than 2023.

Plans to stop using fossil fuels by 2050 (Net Zero) will have little affect on the climate as China, the world's largest emitter of carbon dioxide (CO2) (at 30% of the total), is building more than 100 coal fuelled electric generating stations each year. These will produce twice as much CO2 as natural gas fuelled stations. 

 Germany is shutting down nuclear generating stations, that do not emit CO2, and reopening coal mines to generate electricity. While the Canadian government refuses to supply natural gas; which emits half the CO2 of burning coal.

But not to worry. Many scientists believe that CO2 is not the only problem. And, a warmer planet will benefit some countries by improving crop yields, reducing deaths from cold weather and reducing heating and snow clearing costs. 

Since the Industrial Revolution, atmospheric CO2 has increased from 280 to 420 parts per million (ppm) and this has resulted in an increase of food production by more than 20 %. If this were to increase to 800 ppm, food production would increase a further 60%. If it were to decrease to 150 ppm, many plants would die of CO2 starvation. 

While according to Patrick Moore, co-founder of Green Peace, plants prefer between 1500 and 2000 ppm for optimum growth. Commercial greenhouses add CO2 to maintain a concentration of 1200 ppm.

Today's technical, scientific and economic illiterates are showing signs of another bout of collective climate hysteria. Someone, or something, had to be responsible for climate change! 

If global warming really is the result of burning fossil fuels, the pragmatic solutions should consider cost/benefit ratios instead of a mindless rush to eliminate all CO2 emissions by some arbitrary date.

But this controversy is nothing new. The first recorded debate about Anthropogenic (human caused) climate change began in the 13th century. People needed fuel to keep warm in the exceptionally frigid winters of the Little Ice Age, which devastated harvests in Europe from 1300 to 1850 CE, causing starvation and sickness.

The increasing European population had caused a rapid destruction of forests, making wood for fuel more expensive. In London, UK, people began burning coal (a fossil fuel) despite the smoke and dirt. 

 But someone had to be responsible for the climate change! So, in Europe, witches got the blame and more than 100 thousand, mostly elderly, women, were put on trial and many brutally tortured to confess, before they were cruelly murdered. 

 This had no effect on the weather.