Ensemble [Book 1: SEKTOR V Trilogy]

Chapter 22: So Many Questions

Chapter 22: So Many Questions

As Stanley watched everyone settle back into their seats, the Director spoke. "OK, I hope everyone's batteries are recharged. Let's begin where we left off. That is, exploring the differences between how the Ministry operates and how we plan to operate. And if it's OK with everyone, I'd like to jump in on this one...and yes, pun intended," she added with a smirk.

No one objected, so Maddy continued, "Well, in the simplest of terms, we'd like to Jump past the Sweeper period of tight Ministry control. Our interest is to explore months into the future, not just days or weeks. We also want to visit timelines that appear very similar to ours initially. That is, as you go farther from the point of origin, noticeable differences relative to our world start to emerge. By running computer models that accurately simulate many possible futures, not just the one that the Ministry envisions and wishes to control, we hope to ultimately be able to shift Mankind's future towards a path that is free of active manipulation...a path that includes possibilities that aren't predetermined by a handful of rich and powerful individuals...a path that will reinstate free will for us, for our children and our children's children. And Stanley, as a father, husband, and fellow American, I'm sure you can understand how important that is."

Laying it on a bit thick, aren't we? Still, most of what they're saying about the ministry's manipulation does make a lot of sense. "How exactly can you do all that? To be honest, it sounds a bit ambitious."

"It won't be easy, but a potential pathway is through Ensemble forecasting, Mr. Dial," Dr. Narain replied. "There are two ways one can issue a forecast. Think of the weather, if you like. In the past, in the very early days when primitive computers were used to predict the weather, we issued what was known as a 'deterministic' forecast. What that means is that we made one computer forecast that predicted where a weather system would go and how strong it would be. Computing power was so limited that we could do no better than that."

Stanley had a difficult time concentrating on what she was saying given her confusing mix of cultures that included a traditional Indian Sari and a thick British accent. "I remember when I was a child, that weather forecasts were terrible. My uncle lost his house to a tornado and the meteorologists had no clue it was coming. Dumbasses."

"Yes, Stanley. Unfortunately, back then, forecast uncertainty was quite high," Dr. Narain replied. "Today, the computer models we use to mimic the environment are much more complex. This advancement, coupled with the exponential growth of computing power, has enabled Global Weather Centers to implement a much more sophisticated second system known as 'Ensemble' forecasting. By using this advanced technique, many simulations can now be run in the time it used to take to conduct a single 'deterministic' model forecast. By perturbing each individual simulation in such a way that they are slightly different than the original, control simulation, a set of ensemble forecasts emerge.

"Due to the inherent variability associated with Earth's highly interactive air-sea-land physical system, you're invariably left with a 'spaghetti plot' of possible storm paths and intensities that are all, in some way, different. Some Ensemble members may depict a fast storm system, while other forecasted events may favor a slower-moving storm that takes a slightly different path. Similarly, some simulations may predict a powerful system while other simulations may depict considerably weaker storms. The entire point of this complicated exercise is to quantify the variability of the physical system to more accurately capture the likelihood of a future event."

"O...K..." Stanley felt like he might need to 're-ensemble' his brain after all that. "I think I get it... But how do you know which specific 'Ensemble member' is right," he used air quotes, "which one do you choose to use?"