Virus - Prisoners of the Nature

Chapter 11

A boardroom covered in white paint. A wood-colored table stood in the middle, surrounded by eight black rotating sofa chairs. Glasses of water, pens, and papers lay on the table in front of each chair. One projector faced towards a white screen on the wall. Projector was turned off.

Four men and three women sat on the chairs. Neil was among them. God's grace gave hairs to the heads of these men. Easily countable. But still. They all wore a white coat with a stethoscope around their necks and a blue mask covering their mouths and noses. One chairs was empty. Aman was standing in the corner.

"Raman was the first patient to die by this disease on fifth April. He came on fourth April in a comatose state with fever, vomiting, and cough. His heart stopped, but an intern, Harsh, revived him. Aman, a resident of medicine, tried to treat him, but despite the efforts, Raman still died the next day. Then four days later, her co-worker Dev and Raman's wife died. They both had similar symptoms like Raman. Raman's two children and mother are currently in the isolation ward. Another Shah family with husband, wife, and their son is also in the isolation ward. I have sent the samples to test for the new coronavirus that has emerged in China." Neil briefed the room as he rotated his wedding ring on his right hand to ward off his nervousness from taking control of his body.

Wedding Rings are not a traditional part of an Indian Wedding. However, in modern society, influences of the west can't be denied in its entirety. Still he wore it on his right hand. Because left hand is considered as suspicious and profane in Hinduism. So Hindus use right hand for all the auspicious activities.

"It's been like six days. The probability of the same virus is not that high. But it's always good to confirm. Do they have any travel history?" Manesh asked.

Manesh Mehta was the head of the department of community medicine. God's grace didn't shine on his head. Community medicine is a branch of public health that deals with healthcare issues affecting communities as a whole like epidemic, pandemic, etc.

"No."

"Then how can they have the same virus?"

"There can be two different epicenters for the outbreak of this virus." Neil answered.

"At the same time! In two different countries. Thousands of kilometers away. That will be the day. So why are we here?" Manesh laughed.

"I think we should consider this as an epidemic. I am not an epidemiologist. So I thought I consult you first. I also want to confirm our index patient and find out how many people are exposed to this virus. And how many are at risk of exposing to this virus." Neil asked for his advice.

"So you want to contain the virus before it can spread to a larger demographic area. That's thoughtful. But don't you already know who the index patient is. Raman is the first person who came with the symptoms and died. So he is the index patient." Manesh told him.

Index patient or patient zero is the first documented patient in an epidemic within a population. Index patient can be a different person than the first person to be affected with the disease. Because sometimes first affected person may die, or may not go to a hospital to be documented, or doesn't show any symptoms, but still passes the virus to others.

"Yes. But he had no travel history. But if this virus is the same as the one in China, then he must have come in contact with a person who has recently travelled from china. That's the only explanation. The possibility of two different epicenters is rare. I want to find out who that person is. Before he can spread virus to more people. And that person can be the real index patient." Neil argued.

"Maybe a person of Chinese nationality came into India and he transmitted the virus Raman." Manesh said.

"Maybe. That's a possibility too. In the epidemic of SARS, R nought was in the range of two to five. If we imagine the worst case scenario, then within this six day, as much as fifteen thousand six hundred twenty-five people can be infected."

R nought, also known as the basic reproduction number, is the expected number of cases directly infected by one case in a population where all individuals are susceptible to infection. In simple terms, R nought is the number of people that can be infected by the person harbouring the disease.

R nought is different for different viruses. For measles, It is between 12 and 18. For SARS coronavirus in 2002, it was between 2 and 5. So a single infected person can transmit the virus to 5 other. That 5 can transmit the virus to 25 others. That 25 can transmit the virus to 125 others. And so on...

"That's considering if R nought is five. What if it's lower?" Manesh said.

"What if it's higher?" Neil said.

"You want to do what?" Sanjay Sharma said. The head of department of medicine. His physique is the same as any other HODs. Old. Countable hairs. A big belly.

"I want to go out on the field, do a bit of research, and see the origin of this virus. I will do it first thing tomorrow morning."

"Okay. Why don't we all ask doctors and our colleagues from other hospitals? See if they had any deaths or cases like these. There are chances that we may not be the only one involved in this disease." Sanjay Sharma said.

"In your research, do you want an epidemiologist to accompany you?" Manesh said.

"Yes. That can be a huge help." Neil replied.

"Diya, why don't you go with him?" Manesh turned to Diya.

Diya was an epidemiologist working in his department. Her long ear supported her glasses that corrected her vision. She had blue eyes. Quite rare in India. Oversized frames of her glasses suited her oval face. Wearing a blue jean and a black shirt hidden underneath her long apron. She was not traditional. Unlike other two women, her neck didn't have a mangala sutra. Nor there was any ring on her fingers.

Mangala sutra is derived from a Sanskrit word: Mangala meaning holy or auspicious. Sutra meaning thread. Mangala sutra is a necklace that the groom ties around the bride's neck during the marriage ceremony, especially in Hinduism, which identifies her as a married woman. It's like a wedding ring for neck instead of finger. It's made of gold for those who can afford it. For others, it is made from black or yellow thread prepared with turmeric.

"Okay. Sir. Thanks for the opportunity." She replied politely.

The meeting ended. Neil and Diya decided to go out on the field the first thing tomorrow morning. Evening came. And so came the test results. It was inevitable.

"It's positive. It is coronavirus. The same as the one in china." Aman said as he coughed for the first time underneath his blue mask which protected the others from him.

Note : I was a little late in publishing this chapter. I want to publish new chapter daily. But on Friday, my examination schedule was released. It is starting from next month. A bit earlier than expected. I have to (HAVE TO, NOT WANT TO) prepare for my exam. Otherwise, I might fail. Writing a chapter daily and then editing it takes up a lot of time. So from now on, Instead of publishing a chapter daily, I will publish a new chapter every two or three days depending on the time I have. Hope you are enjoying my story. Thanks for sticking out with the story. Have a good day (or night).