Smart's Take on NR2003: NSDCA Edition

NSDCA S5 Crown Royal Truck Series Chase Scenarios

After a wild race at the Glen with championship implications, 18 drivers will now fight for 9 spots to determine our ten truck chase field. Going into the two race regular season finale, Austin Murray, the only driver with three wins is already locked into this year's postseason for the decaying Mid State Automotive. These drivers who are still in contention will claw for every position in these last two races because this will make or break their season. Different drivers will have to face a different reality on the track if they want to make their postseason hopes come true. Before we get started, let's recall the criteria of making the chase.

In order to make the postseason for the CRTS, the driver needs to do one of the two things.
1. Finish inside the top 8 of the regular season standings
2. Become one of the top two drivers with victories AND finish between 9th and 20th in points in order to get a wild card spot. Point standing position is the tiebreak

As I go down the ladder, I'll first assume one scenario that will make this setup so much easier. This assumption is that we will have no more new winners before the seven race chase. Later on, we could look into what if a winless driver finally gets it done not once, but possibly even twice. I'll also assume that the top 20 in points remains the same. This means we'll disregard The NSDCA Outlaw, Brady Burkhart until later in this entry.

For this scenario, let's go over the obvious before even putting that into affect. Let's first go over the drivers who I think might lock themselves in most likely after the first finale race.
2nd: Carson Bauers (+59)
He is in a really comfortable spot at the moment. The only possible way for him to not make the chase AT ALL is to lose SO MANY POINTS in which the only way to even pull this off is two straight not top 25 finishes. If he can keep up his tempo, he'll be locked in before the final race right next to Murray.
3rd: Matty Porta (+34)
This contender from a slightly struggling team is ALMOST to the position to automatically join the chase. He'll need to gain give or take 10 points to lock himself in. However if you want to get technical, he'll need to be at +41 in order to clinch a spot after the first race. His consistency has been up and down due to wrecks, but all he needs is one good race out of two.
4th: Logan Cloud (+26)
Him getting locked in via points after the first race is 50 50, but he has one advantage that nobody else has. Since he's the only not locked in driver with multiple wins, he could play a critical factor if he falls out of the top 8 in points! If none of the outsiders by points wins more races, Logan Cloud's chances of making the chase is almost certain. There is almost no way that Logan Cloud does NOT make the postseason. However if he wants to guarantee a top 8 points position, he'll need to gain about 15 points to clinch.

Next, we'll see who's in the points bubble that could see dynamics change between drivers as we get to the last two races.
5th: DJ Kurtis (+9)
Points wise, he'll need to battle regardless. No matter what happens, his best track type is back again. His talent in the speedway is taking more and more effect to the points situation. If he can keep up his speedway consistency, he'll be in the top 8 in points, not having to worry about using his win to possibly make it in.
6th: DJ Gibson (+6)
If there was one driver that ZR should have concentrated all their TUP (Team upgrade points) to, it should of been on DJ Gibson. After taking a big hit in points after causing multiple incidents at the Glen with no word of penalties, he either needs to perform well or fall into a must win situation. He cannot wreck anymore or he will have to kiss his chase hopes goodbye, just like at least two of his teammates.
7th: Carter Friesen (+6)
With one win this season, all he needs to do is to fight the outsiders like the situation with DJ Kurtis in order to put the truck that ALMOST won the championship in the chase.
8th: Jay Jefferson (+1)
He is in the lead for his own team, Texas Star Racing is in a situation that they don't prefer. The 48 truck is the ONLY truck that could stably contend to make the chase. With woes hitting him and his team, he'll need to wiggle the curse off of him in order to make the chase with at least a top 10 in one of the races.
9th: Anderson Reed (-1)
This truck from Onjauto has been on FIRE in the last few races. After winning at the Glen, they now hold the first wild card spot to make the chase! However he has stiff competition behind him who are also in the bubble AND from behind. His best bet is to wheel that 41 like he usually does at the BIG speedways and contend for the best finishes that he could get. Another win would lock him in almost regardless.
10th: Alex Peters (-1)
The last driver within a group of drivers in the ten point range of that inner bubble, Alex Peters had a great early start to his season, but lately has been plagued by a team plague of bad luck. He has been slowly fading out of the chase picture lately so his best bet is to break the curse that has certainly hit the worst at the Glen and prepare to become the lead driver of the team. The pressure is on for the driver of the 45!
11th: Alex Benyacko (-12)
SBR knew what they were doing when they recruited drivers from the MDCS to the CRTS. Alex Benyacko has had a rather decent rookie season. Odds however say otherwise. He has contended for race wins before, especially at Charlotte earlier this season. Sadly this isn't a Quad oval. All they need is a couple modifications then Benyacko could play spoiler in the chase field and possibly even win to up his chances via wild card.
12th: Irving Allison (-19)
Here's a winner we have never seen coming. Irving Allison after pulling off a luck win at Memphis, he has been the talk of the team (in a good way). This was at a SHORT TRACK. This is a 1.5 mile speedway! In order for Allison to make it, he'll need to combat at a track that he isn't that strong at. With 19 points to make up and almost that same amount to reach the wild card drivers, it will be a hell of a battle for him to make the chase.

Next, we'll see who needs a bit of help with making the chase overall. With the points battle and wild card battle in a similar spot, these drivers could gain ground, but need help and not wreck out.
13th: Peter Onjack (-25)
With a win at South Boston earlier this season, Peter will need to wheel that track how Reed did at the Glen to guarantee himself to the chase. He is in a position where he could win to get in, but that doesn't really need to happen. He just need bubble drivers to wreck out once to get a wild card spot or into the top 8 in points by the end of race 2.
14th: Gatlin Downey (-26)
For the top driver of RER, he is yet to score a victory and that's terrible for his chances to make the chase. It's rather realistic to say that he's in a must win situation at Chicagoland in order to increase his little chances in having a RER driver make the chase. Unlike Onjack, all he needs to do is not lose much ground and close down the contenders in the bubble positions to increase his odds.
15th: Zachary DiLello (-41)
As of right now, if you pass this driver in points, you'll have at least SOME chance of making the chase. With one win under his belt, he is on the verge of being in a must win situation in order to get a wild card spot. Out of the outsiders, you'll look really good if you get win number two. It may look like the case for the owner of Zachary Racing, but help could still save him. He'll just need Reed and Peters to have a terrible weekend to claim a wild card spot.

These last set of people who could be applicable still need help, but they are REQUIRED to gain on the cutline to even be considered. In a way, they are in a must win situation and might have to sweep the weekend in order to make the postseason.
16th: Jose Perez (-52)
This driver is the safest out of this group since he got one victory. Perez basically has this extra life where all he needs to do is win one of the two events in order to get a wild card spot. There is only one complex way that he couldn't make the postseason once he gets win number two. He would then not have to worry about points AT ALL. He literally has two chances to make the chase compared to the next few people in this list.
17th: Paul Jackson (-63)
Jackson is basically required to finish inside the top ten TWICE in order to pass the driver in the eighth position to make the chase. Unfortunately, his chances in making it based on his consistency is slim to none. He'll basically need to win TWICE in order to get a wild card spot.
18th: Jake Galloway (-74)
For someone who has gotten four wins last season and the championship for the MDCS, I did not expect him to be this low in points. Virtually speaking, he'll need to put that performance at Darlington to the best use. That'll give him a slight edge in contending to sweep the weekend.
19th: Tib Foster (-81)
Due to being TWO RACES back 8th place, he'll need to win twice in order to possibly make the chase.

This is only the basic version of the points situation with assumptions in place. I could go on and explain every situation with even more applicable drivers who are 20th on down who could still SOMEHOW manage to make the chase if they sweep the weekend like Brady Burkhart, Riley Spurlytube and more! They just need to finish 20th or better in order to get in. Now say if we do get new winners like Paul Jackson or Gatlin Downey, it could shake up the wild card situation. Now, assume that there was a huge battle for the wild card chase. Anderson Reed and Alex Peters are in the best spots, but once a two time winner comes into the picture, everything will break loose for those who still want to claw themselves in. Chicagoland will be one hectic weekend to say the least as we conclude the regular season of the Crown Royal Truck Series.