Pure Writerly Moments 2 (Short Stories, Essays, Book Reviews, and More)

Review - The Globotics Upheaval (Richard Baldwin)

What happens when high-powered apps and freelance sites make it possible for white-collar workers in the developed world to be replaced by lower-paid workers in the developing world? What will we do when RPA (robotic process automation) destroys a large number of white-collar jobs? How can history serve as a guide to the process of technological upheaval and their economic, social, and political impacts?

These are the questions this book attempts to answer. And answer these questions it does, often in ways that are simple and useful.

First, some of the negatives of the book.

The book seems as if it were written quickly, almost as if it were meant to be a long magazine article and then was quickly lengthened into a book. Missing is much of the artistry and craft you will find in such books as Steven Pinker's "Enlightenment Now", Yuval Noah Harari's "21 Lessons for the 21 Century", or Nassim Nicholas Taleb's "Skin in the Game". It's also not the best book written about future technology. A better book might be Michio Kaku's excellent "Physics of the Future". This book covers many of the same technological topics but offers more depth and breadth on the topic of future technology.

Now, the positives.

The book is excellent at filling its niche: discussing RPA technologies and their possible impacts. The academic aspects and historical analysis of the book weren't poor, but the book is at its best when it serves as a piece of extended journalism. For this reason, I was surprised to learn that Richard Baldwin is actually an economist. The book is often at its best when it is grounded in anecdotes and stories. The book is often riveting when it is talking about current companies and the plight of real people.

An unexpected good point to the book was Baldwin's sensitivity to the social and political aspects of economic revolutions. In each technological upheaval, we get a sense of the real despair that occurs in local communities. I think this is an important corrective to a strictly statistical argument for technological progress (for example "Factfulness" and "Enlightenment Now"). Even if technological improvements are better for humanity overall, the upheaval it causes to localized communities upsets our basic notion of fairness.

The book also deals with another important idea: our loss of identity and community. Few economists, I dare say, would reference the work of Emile Durkheim so often and examine the idea of "anomie". And yet, this reference is extraordinarily relevant because economic upheavals often lead to crises of identity. It is no coincidence that religious fundamentalism and tribalism have grown during these times of globalization and technological upheaval. The tendency to ban together in tight groupings is a natural outcome of insecurity. Thus, we should expect tribalism and religious fundamentalism to be the flip side of globotic progress.

Yes, technology will make the world better, but it will also destroy communities, customs, and people along the way. The way this process occurs is vastly unfair and thus the government has a strong role to play in ameliorating this injustice.

Perhaps the most radical conclusion of this book is that "globotics" -- while something very new -- is not anything new in terms of transformational technologies. Technological revolutions have occurred in the past and their trajectories are fairly clear: upheaval, backlash, and adjustment. How turbulent this experience is depends on the scale and velocity of the upheaval along with the skill of policymakers in crafting responses to these upheavals. When policymakers fail, radical solutions such as communism and fascism might lead to more misery and maladjustment rather than adjustment.

The author concludes that policy tools, such as those used by Denmark, have already shown to work. Protect workers through safety nets, job retraining, and salary subsidies -- but don't protect industries or jobs.

That is a refreshing take. Often writers and academics try to be too clever when dealing with complex issues. Often, simple and mostly right solutions are better than complicated solutions that aim for an ideal.

Perhaps this isn't an essential read for the 21st century, but if you are looking for a book that has a wealth of information about the RPA revolution to come, along with a sympathy of the human beings caught in this moment of upheaval, then this book is the right book for you.