CLIMATE CHANGE: what does it mean?

Fossil Fuels: The Facts

Fossil fuels are carbon or compounds of carbon and hydrogen that humans have extracted from the earth for centuries. They comprise coal, oil, and natural gas that were created eons ago from organic material, such as plankton and algae, under high pressure over a long period of time. What took nature millions or billions of years to produce, humans are devouring with a rapacious appetite in a relatively short period of time, and in about a century they will be pretty much exhausted. That assumes that consumption of fossil fuels will continue to increase at the same rate of the past few years.

Hopefully, that won't be the case. Consumption will continue to increase, but the rate of increase should start decelerating. Without a slowdown there will be no hope of meeting the Climate Change Treaty objective of limiting global temperatures to 1.5C above the pre-industrial era.

In this chapter, I focus on the production and consumption of fossil fuels to determine who the big players are.

Who are the biggest producers and who are the biggest consumers?

I start with coal because it is the most abundant, most used, and the dirtiest. It's the one with the biggest environmental footprint, by far.

In 2012, the world produced roughly nine billion tons of coal, of which China accounted for four, the U.S. one, and India one half. The three of them make up more than 60% of world production. The remaining 40% came from much smaller producing countries. Canada's production, for example, was 70 million tons, or 7% of that of the U.S.

The consumption picture is not much different. The biggest producers are also the biggest consumers. China's consumption is roughly the same as its production; so It's neither a net importer nor exporter of coal. The U.S. consumes 90% of what it produces and exports the remaining 10%. Europe consumes more than it produces, so it's a net importer. Its consumption was roughly one billion tons.

Petroleum's environmental footprint is smaller than coal's and has fewer toxic and carcinogenic substances; and its production is not as geographically concentrated as coal's. 

In 2014, the world produced 93 million barrels of oil per day. Although Saudi Arabia is often thought as the biggest producer, that honour actually goes to the U.S., with a production of 14 million barrels per day. Saudi Arabia was second with 12 and Russia third with 11. The three of them account for 40% of global production. China and Canada stood in fourth and fifth place with 4.5 and 4, respectively. These five countries accounted for one half of world production.

The U.S. also gets top honours for consumption. At 19 million barrels per day, it's by far the biggest petroleum consumer; and at 11, China is the second biggest. The two of them account for almost one third of global consumption! Third place went to Japan (4.6). India and Russia took fourth and fifth places, with 3.7 and 3.5 million barrels per day, respectively. Saudi Arabia consumed only 3 million barrels per day, making it the biggest exporter. China and the U.S. are the biggest importers of petroleum in the world.

Natural gas is the cleanest of the fossil fuels. Whereas coal comprises mostly carbon atoms, natural gas, which is actually methane (CH4), has four hydrogen atoms for each carbon atom. When a molecule of natural gas burns it produces two molecules of water vapour and one of carbon dioxide. For this reason, it has the smallest environmental footprint of the fossil fuels.

The biggest producer of natural gas, by a large margin, is the U.S. In 2013, it produced 30 trillion cubic feet, or more than 20% of global production. Russia was second with 24, and Iran third with 8. Qatar and Algeria were tied in fourth place with 6 each. These five producers account for more than half of global production. The other half comes from a large number of small producers.

The U.S. and Russia are also the biggest consumers with 27 and 15 trillion cubic feet per year, respectively. Although both export natural gas, Russia is the biggest exporter (9 trillion cubic feet per year). China and Japan are the third and fourth largest consumers, with 6.5 and 4.7, respectively. Canada is in fifth place at 3.7 because it uses natural gas to dilute the bitumen produced from the oil sands. These five countries account for almost half of global consumption.

What do these data tell us?

The major global users of fossil fuels, and thus the major polluters, are China, the U.S., Russia, and Japan. Therefore, the success of the Climate Change Treaty rests largely on their shoulders. They will have to spearhead the charge against fossil fuels or it won't happen!

But how likely is it that the major producers, which in most cases are also the major consumers, will push aggressively to reduce production?

Producing fossil fuels is a profitable business for all the major players. Hence, from an economic perspective, which is all that matters to the powers that be, curtailing production would be like shooting themselves in the foot!

Therefore, the onus is on us, as individuals, to curtail our own consumption. Working together, we will make a difference!

We owe it not only to ourselves, but also to our children and theirs!