Chronologically, the first point in the timeline is Crowley meeting Halt in a random inn, which saves Crowley's nose, and eventually his life when Morgarath sends men with the intention to kill. This would not have happened had Ferris been a decent younger brother, and from this moment is a butterfly effect that allows the rest of the series to happen.
Even if Crowley escapes Morgarath's men with his life, it's Halt who instinctively knocks out a passing messenger to read the mail, finding a list of Rangers and where Duncan is held hostage, kickstarting the entire plot of 'The Tournament at Gorlan' that prevents Araluen from being taken over by Morgarath. Several Rangers on the list would waste away, Leander hiding in his cabin, Egon drinking his sorrows at the bar, and Berrigan under trial for singing treasonous songs. The rest were being a general annoyance and had no further plans.
Baron Arald is killed in the duel at Castle Gorlan because no one thinks to expect it, Oswald dies from drug poisoning, and Duncan is killed to prevent an uprising. Morgarath is king. The only good to come of this is Pritchard is safe in Hibernia.
A good king, Morgarath is not, and without Rangers, organizations like the Outsiders gain a bigger foothold on the country, making life harder to live for the average citizen. His own men act terrible enough. Will's parents are alive and struggling to make ends meet.
In 15 years, Will is his worst nightmare: a farmer. Halt is the King of Clonmel. Gilan is a knight, and extremely bored. Maybe he buys into the Ranger Corps, but it's a rich boy's club for taking advantage of others and he promptly quits. The Temujai are coming for Skandia, and nobody in Araluen knows this. Skandia falls.
Gallica and Teutlandt are next, and now the two big powers are fighting on the continent for who deserves Iberion: the Temujai or the Toscans. Pirates like Zavac wreck havoc on the shoreline, and Lydia gets lost at sea. The Temujai decide to invade the island countries through Skandia.
The Scotti consider an attack on Araluen and Sir Keren is on board to let them have Norgate. This is the least of Morgarath's worries as the Temujai come over by the boatload. Hibernia is no help: the Outsiders have conquered all but Clonmel, and that Kingdom is barely holding on by King Halt's stubbornness to crush them back—until the Genovesan assassin kills him, leaving Ferris on the throne, whose kindness is now a weakness.
In Nihon-Ja, Arisaka succeeds in defeating Shigeru, the country falling to an Emperor who dislikes progress and Kikori rights.
Morgarath likes how the Outsiders work and cuts a deal. He's laughing. Everyone else is crying, but he's laughing.
I was inspired by PilindielTheElf's 'Ignoring History' (an RA fanfiction available on Wattpad) to come up with a world where things didn't play out the same as canon books. My version turns out a bit differently, but I respect hers, and hopefully she doesn't mind the promotion.
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A Collection of Ranger's Apprentice Theories
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