Looking Backward from the Tricentennial

Chapter Nineteen (part 2)

"Unionizing as voters let us look out for each other," Shirley offered.

"That's true," Polly agreed. "But game theory is an important part of how it works. Julian, you may have heard of the prisoner's dilemma, where two parties can each rationally conclude they are better off making a deal, even if their best outcome comes from declining. It was a thought experiment based on the way the criminal justice system used to work."

"What is it?" Idabee asked.

"Two men get arrested and accused of committing a burglary the previous night," Polly explained. "They're held in solitary confinement, so they can't communicate, and the prosecutor comes to each to offer them a plea bargain if they'll testify against the other."

"Wait!" Idabee objected. "Why were they still being held? How would a prosecutor talk to them directly without going through their lawyer? What was the reason they were in solitary confinement?"

"It doesn't really apply any more," Polly admitted.

"I want to hear more about how the criminal justice system works now," said Julian truthfully.

Polly held up her hands, appealing for order. "The American Union wasn't the first political reform to use game theory. When the Framers wrote the Constitution, they dictated that members of the Senate would be elected by state legislatures. During the First Gilded Age, the People's Party wanted the direct election of senators, to fight corruption and let voters hold them accountable. But until the Seventeenth Amendment was adopted, Oregon developed a workaround using game theory, and other states followed suit.

"The state would hold an election for US Senate—really, a referendum, since it was nonbinding. Each candidate for the state legislature was given the option of pledging to vote for the US Senate candidate who won the referendum. The pledges appeared on the official ballot, increasing their appeal to the voters and their chance of winning the election.

"In 1894, before he ran for president, William Jennings Bryan campaigned across Nebraska for the US Senate. With the backing of the Democrats and People's Party, he received more than 70% support, but the Republicans won a majority of the state legislature and sent their own candidate to Washington.

"By 1910, however, Nebraska had adopted the Oregon system, and Republican George Norris won the referendum for the Senate seat. That year, the Democrats controlled the legislature, but they kept their word and sent him to Washington instead of their own candidate. This system maintained adherence to the letter of the Constitution until 1913, when Bryan, who had become Secretary of State, certified the ratification of the Seventeenth Amendment.

"The best outcome for the men in the prisoner's dilemma comes when neither cooperates, but each can rationally conclude that cooperation is in their best interest. State legislatures could have held onto their power if everyone refused to take the pledge, but individual candidates rationally concluded they were better off taking the deal. And so the people of their states came out ahead."

"And the American Union used game theory so the people of the United States came out ahead?" Julian asked.

"That's right," Polly confirmed. "When Muster Day came around, enough people were willing to pool their votes with the American Union."

"With the fast for peace?" Julian said.

Polly nodded. "For the general public, the twenty-four-hour fast is a personal choice and can be a private one. But for the candidates for federal office, Muster Day is a take-it-or-leave-it offer. They either join the fast for peace and publicly support immediate passage of the year's legislative demands, or they're recorded as being in opposition. This roll call vote, along with whether Congress actually passes the legislation in one week, is how the American Union endorsements are made.