CHAPTER III
Causes of new wars
The causes and occasions of a new war arise with iron necessity from the last war and the Treaty of Versailles. The French ruling classes feel more and more strongly that the reign of terror which they have established in Europe cannot last long. The French bourgeoisie, both reactionary and radical, fears German revenge to the same extent, but at the same time it challenges it and prepares for it. For its part, the German bourgeoisie, which is prepared to reach an understanding at the expense of the people, is impatiently waiting for the hour of revenge to strike. The antagonism between England and France in Europe and in the colonies is steadily intensifying. Although the diplomatic hanky-panky and pacts concealed this process, they did not weaken it. The military programme of the two allies, in particular the air fleet and chemical warfare programme, was built up with a view to the coming Anglo-French war. While Herriot tweets patriotically with McDonald, the General Staff in Paris works out the plan for future air raids on London, and the British state deals with the plan for the counter-visit.
The smaller states of Europe lag behind the great powers in strength, but not in greed and malice. The small states that existed before the war lost the last remnants of their independence, while the new states that emerged from the war were born with the lead weight of dependence on their feet. At the behest of the great powers, the medium-sized and small states merged into various groupings. The states in central Europe are attracted to France, just as the prisoner is attracted to the prison guard. The small European coastal states bend their backs to England. Thus even the choice between the two whips is determined not by free will but by the general situation of small states. The last war has amply demonstrated the fragility of neutrality. There is no doubt that a new war would drag the majority of small states into the bloody turmoil from the very first days. The militarism of the countries of the Little Entente, the Balkan states or the Baltic states is a source of support for the great powers and at the same time a source of danger in the relations between the small states.
Conflicting interests
The most powerful world antagonism is slowly but persistently groping for the line where the interests of Great British imperialism clash with those of the United States of America. Over the past two years, it has seemed as if a permanent understanding had been reached between these two giants. But the appearance of permanence will only last as long as the economic recovery of the North American republic is mainly based on the internal market. This development is now unmistakably coming to an end; the agricultural crisis, which grew out of the ruin of Europe, was the harbinger of the approaching commercial and industrial crisis. America's productive forces must seek an ever broader route to the world market. The foreign trade of the United States can develop mainly at the expense of Great Britain's trade, and the American merchant and naval fleet at the expense of the British fleet. The period of Anglo-American understanding will have to give place to an ever-increasing struggle, which in turn will mean a danger of war on an unprecedented scale. The antagonism between Japan and the United States retains its full intensity. The earthquake in Japan has changed the balance of power, but has not softened the enmity. The ban on yellow immigration to the United States gives the struggle of the imperialists on the Pacific Ocean the tendency of a racial struggle. In the event of a meeting between the United States and Great Britain, the role of Japanese imperialism will be incomparably more active than it was in the last imperialist war.
The immense wealth of the bourgeoisie of the United States at present represents a tremendous danger of explosion. The temporary isolation of the United States, which sought to digest the plundered riches, is coming to an end. North American capital needs to expand in all directions. One of its paths leads to the south. The drive towards Mexico must intensify, as must the penetration of South America, the displacement of European capital from there and the full subjugation of South America. The militarism of the United States will assume a more active and aggressive character not only at sea, but also on the American mainland
