"As we're considering Austin's' prospects of one day playing college baseball" Kent said, "each of you probably still wonder - is any of this really possible?
I say as long as Austin continues to prepare, and perform, and puts the necessary effort into his school work and his recruitment, the opportunity for him is greater than you can ever imagine.
So let's push these thoughts of worry from your minds: Let's focus on Austin's letter writing; his preparation for the summer and fall events; his grades; and his performance. Let's remind ourselves to control what we can control - and everything else will take care of itself.
Ok. So we've already learned about all the divisions of college baseball, now lets' take a look at the numbers behind college baseball recruitment so each of us can better understand just how great an opportunity to play college baseball there really is.
Like any other marketplace, the college baseball recruitment marketplace has a supply-side (graduating high school senior baseball players), and demand-side (open roster positions at the collegiate level).
THE SUPPLY SIDE
The 2014-15 Participation Study from the National Federation of State High School Associations reports there are 486,5671 high school baseball players (grade 9-12) in America-Just like Austin.
Since we're only concerned with the pool of graduating senior high school baseball players-we're going to divide the total number of high school baseball players (486,567) by 4 (representing each of the four years of high school), and we arrive at a number of 121,641.
Each year, there are approximately 121,641 graduating senior high school baseball players in the United States.
Of those graduating high school senior baseball players, we know that not every one of them will choose to play-or even be able to play baseball collegiately. It just doesn't happen.
So let's look back on the Park City high school team and examine how many senior baseball players chose to play college baseball. Over the past 5 years since Barry played, the number of players wanting to play in college has remained between 15-20% every year. Other teams may have a higher or lower percentage, but for now, I'll use a conservative, higher figure of 20% for the rest of this discussion.
If we say that 20% of all graduating high school senior baseball players in the U.S will choose to play college baseball, then the total number of players competing for a collegiate roster spot nationally is 24,328 (121,641 total graduating seniors X 20%=24,328).
Each year, there are approximately 24,328 other graduating senior high school baseball players competing against you for a collegiate baseball roster spot.
Now let's look at the Demand Side.
THE DEMAND SIDE
As you now know the size of the pool of high school players you're competing against on the supply-side, let's examine the demand side.
The demand side represents every college program throughout the country that needs to locate - and fill, their open roster spots from the available pool of graduating high school senior baseball players.
Factoring in all divisions of college baseball (D1, D2, D3, NAIA, JUCO and CCCJA), there is a total of 1,611 college baseball programs across America looking for players-just like you - each year.
If you consider senior class player graduations at 4-year programs and transferring-sophomore players at JUCO (Junior College) programs, there are an estimated 16,883 roster positions that become available each year-for all divisions of college baseball.
I've taken Barry's research on this, and updated it to allow me to break down the numbers by each Division of Play in today's market:
-Division 1 roster positions available - 2,557
-Division 2 roster positions available - 2,541
-Division 3 roster positions available - 3,232
-NAIA roster positions available - 1,644
-JUCO roster positions available - 6,863
-CJCAA positions available - 1,106
Total openings at all programs in the U.S (All 2 or 4-yr roster positions available) - 17,943
So out of 17,943 open positions, what do you think your odds are of becoming recruited to play college baseball at any level of play?
All you have to do to figure that out is to divide the number of high school baseball players wanting to play collegiate baseball (24,328), by the number of collegiate roster positions available (17,943) each year, and you come up with odds of 1:1.35!
This means that if all graduating seniors who want to play college baseball were flexible with the opportunity to play anywhere, most every one of them would be recruited!"
Kent continued: "As you can see, those are tremendous odds in the favor of any high school player that can play the Game, but to make the numbers work; you have to be flexible to the opportunities to play at any level. If you're only going to consider D1, well, you're either a blue-chip player who's already on their radar, or you're just being foolish thinking you're going to get in, and if that's the case, you're really limiting your opportunities without ever really knowing it."
Here's what I mean: I've taken all the levels of baseball - and even the Major League Draft so you can see how the odds of recruitment are greatly against you if you only consider one level of baseball:
-Division 1 (2557 roster positions available each year) - 1:9.5 players
-Division 2 (2541 roster positions available each year) - 1:9.6 players
-Division 3 (3232 roster positions available each year) - 1:7.5 players
-NAIA (1644 roster positions available each year) - 1:14.8 players
-JUCO (6863 roster positions available each year) - 1:3.54 players
-CJCA (1106 roster positions available each year) - 1:22 players
-MLB Draft (1500 roster positions available each year) - 1:96 players
-All levels of baseball (17,943 positions available each year) – 1:1.35 players
"Does this make sense to you Austin?" asked Kent, as he scanned the faces of everyone around the table? "They're already out there – these recruiting coaches – just looking for players just like you!"
Austin understood. We all understood. The numbers made everything crystal-clear, and we all knew it: Austin may be able to actually do this!
As we were wrapping up dessert, Kent said that the key to recruitment success is Preparation:
-You have to prepare - then execute your recruitment strategy.
-You have to prepare – then execute your classroom performance to earn good grades.
-You have to prepare to perform for a higher level of baseball: A faster game with stronger competition.
"While we're on the subject, I think we should just cover one more card in the box this evening. It will only take just a few minutes, so I apologize for over-staying my visit.
"Austin, please take the next card out and read it to us," said Kent.
Austin read the title: #6-"Prepare to Perform."
YOU ARE READING
A Field of Dreamers
Ficción GeneralOur path into the college baseball recruiting experience started much like most other families in youth baseball: We knew nothing. What originally started out as an activity to play on the weekends with our sons and their friends, grew over the yea...
