Improving Our Standard of Living (Wattpad Edition)

Chapter 43: Evidence of Progress

Despite the many problems that still persist, the world is getting better by almost every criterion. Below are (mostly) global statistics. I also include future projections based on current trends. Note that these trends could reverse if nations implement bad policies.

GDP. Adjusted for inflation, global GDP per capita was $5,100 in 1969, $7,100 in 1990, and $10,200 in 2014 [1]. The number of goods and services per person has doubled in the last 45 years.

Life expectancy. According to the United Nations, world life expectancy was 46 in 1955, 62 in 1985, and 68 in 2015 [2]. People live 57% longer than they did 60 years ago. Life expectancy will grow exponentially once nanotechnology and human-level artificial intelligence are developed—sometime by the mid-20th century.

Infant mortality. According to the United Nations and World Health Organization, the annual death rate of infants per 1,000 was 155 in 1955, 75 in 1985, and 32 in 2015 [3] [4]. That's an 80% decrease in infant deaths in 60 years. Infant mortality will be virtually nonexistent by 2030.

Death (overall). According to the United Nations, the crude mortality rate—the number of people that die from any cause per year per 1,000 persons—was 20 in 1955, 10 in 1985, and eight in 2015 [5]. Despite an aging population, we are slowly conquering death. By 2050, all diseases will probably be curable, and aging will likely be reversible in developed countries.

Poverty. According to the World Bank, the percentage of people living in extreme poverty was 42% in 1980, 30% in 1998, and 9% in 2015 [6] [7]. The reason poverty fell so much since 2000 was a combination of free trade agreements, the rise of the internet, and adoption of capitalism and democracy in several developing nations. Globalization has been very good for the world. (Countries that benefited least since 2000 are those that experienced growth in income inequality, such as the United States, the United Kingdom, and Japan. Trade didn't cause the widening income gap though. Those two variables aren't correlated.) By the 2020s, extreme poverty will be virtually eradicated worldwide.

Education. According to OurWorldInData, developed at the University of Oxford, the global literacy rate was 42% in 1960, 65% in 1988, and 83% in 2010 [8]. By the end of this decade, it will be nearly 100%.

Human rights. Developed by the Center for Systemic Peace, the Polity IV scale is used to measure how democratic countries are and the extent of their human rights. It ranges from -10 for least democratic to +10 for most democratic. Only 25 nations scored well enough to be considered democratic in 1950 [9]. This rose to 40 countries in 1980. Today, the number of democratic countries is almost 100. In other words, the world is four times more democratic today than it was in the middle of the 20th century. By 2030, every nation on Earth will have universal suffrage and some form of democracy.

Corruption. Recall that nations' scores on the Democracy Index strongly correlate with their scores on the Corruption Perceptions Index. Since more countries are democratic than ever before, corruption is also at its lowest point in human history. 21st century corruption—as bad as it is—is nothing compared to the past.

Slavery. According to Forbes, in 1750, 75% of the global population was either slaves or serfs [10]. In 1960, it was 50%, mostly in underdeveloped nations. Today it's less than 9%. By 2030, slavery will be all but eradicated. Including human trafficking.

Hours worked. According to Forbes, in the 1870s, the average person worked 2,700 hours per year in the industrialized world [11]. This fell to 1,800 in 1950 and to 1,500 today. Based on this long-established trend, by 2030, the average individual will only need to work 20 hours per week to meet their basic needs.