The year is 202X, and the average consumer of media consumes a lot of it. Therefore, they the average reader is up to your tricks.
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First of all, let's define a "trick" or a "surprise." Basically, a trick is when, as a writer, you set something up that doesn't pay off. Instead, the pay off is something you didn't set up (or didn't set up as much). We also call this a "twist."
But in 202X, most people are just as ready for what is not set up as they are for what is set up. The dark twists, the shockers, the bait and switches... they have been done before. So in 202X, a twist is just something else that we expect writers to do... ironically making the "twist" itself a cliche.
So, what do you do?
The answer is to quit the game altogether.
Stop worrying about what's surprising and what isn't. Instead of trying to surprise your reader, write what you want to write. Because really, the only way you're going to surprise anyone is by sheer luck, by having no pattern at all.
If you want to follow your storyline, do that. If you want to diverge from the storyline, do that. But quit worrying about the audience so much. In many ways, the only way you can go wrong is by trying too hard. What do I mean by this?
If you keep trying to "shock" your readers, your story loses any real heart. This is because, when everything is a twist, no heart can be believed or found. So let the old-fashioned cliche play out, if you want. Let it be a happy ending, if you want. Let the obvious thing be obvious, if you want.
Or if you don't want, then don't!
Yes! Of course feel free to write twists. The point is, when writing a twist: Wrong-foot your reader based on what you want to happen next. Don't want to wrong-foot your reader, then write what happens next based on that.
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All of this is tied into writing with a purpose. When you write only to surprise people, or write only what's popular, or write only what is shocking and over-the-top—essentially when you write only for attention—you are not really writing a story. You are writing a targeted advertisement, and you can do better.
You're a human and you have a heart. The human heart is gonna be around a long time, while fads and twists die in a day.
And in 202X, those days die faster than ever. Choose living happily as yourself instead!
