Playing the Odds

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The atmosphere in the meeting room was stifling. The tar paper roof of the clapboard building had absorbed the summer heat, to slowly release it into the rooms below, turning them into ovens. Open windows were not allowed. As the ever-present posters reminded people: "THE ENEMY MAY BE LISTENING!" So, the only relief in the meeting room came from an electric fan that slowly oscillated back and forth, churning the iron-hot air.

A dozen people - scientists, engineers and military officers - were sitting around a long conference table. In the corner of the meeting room was a secretary, her pad and pencil ready to record the minutes. The other attendees had blotters in front of them, so they could take notes. But, after the meeting was over, the blotters would be collected and burned.

The General tapped his pen on the table as he spoke. "You are sure we only need to test one of the devices?"

"Oh yes," the Chief Scientist responded. "Just the implosion device. That is the only one we have any concerns about. The gun device will work perfectly."


The General looked at him with obvious scepticism. "How can you be sure of that?"

This time the Head Engineer spoke up. "The physics behind that one are simple." There was a murmur of assent and a nodding of heads from around the table. "Even we can understand how it works." The Head Engineer paused, hoping for some reaction to his self-deprecating joke, but received only a sullen silence.

"Indeed." The General wrote something down on his blotter, then returned his attention to the Chief Scientist. "So there is some doubt about the function of the implosion device?"

"No." The Chief Scientist's tone was emphatic. "The theory is sound. But we have not yet tested the explosive lenses. There is no way to do this - except with an actual device."

"I see. Very well. Are there any other concerns?"

"Well," the Chief Scientist began. "One of my assistants came up with an intriguing possibility. The intense radiation flux generated by the detonation may cause the atmospheric oxygen to be transmuted into silicon. This could result in an unstoppable chain reaction."

The General put down his pen. "And what does that mean - in plain English?"

"The atmosphere in the vicinity of the detonation - and possibly throughout the world - could be turned into sand." The Chief Scientist smiled. "But for that to happen? While it has a non-zero probability, the chance of it happening is ... ." He shrugged his shoulders. "There is more chance that the sun will not rise tomorrow."

"Really?" The General was silent for a moment. "Anything else?"

As the meeting went on, the Chief Scientist turned to his neighbour. "You know that ten dollar bet?" he whispered.

"What about it?"

"I hope you have enough funds to pay me if I win."


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