The Search Begins
One can not talk seriously about first contact with extraterrestrials without menioning Frank Drake, his famous equation and SETI. (Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence)
In the year 1959 when two physicists Giuseppe Cocconi and Philip Morrison published a paper in the scientific journal 'Nature' called "Searching for Interstellar Communications." The idea of searching the deep recesses of space for alien life, was a pretty far out idea.
Just one year later in 1960 Frank Drake did just that, becoming the first person to undertake such a task, starting with a systematic search using a radio telescope at a Green Banks observatory West Virginia. He focused on two stars, Epsilon Eridani and Tau Ceti, calling the endeavor Project Ozma. The results of which were unsuccessful.
But it was one that was to capture the minds of scientists and in 1961 he hosted a "Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence" meeting. The meeting attracted ten individuals, Peter Pearman, Philip Morrison, Dana Atchley, Melvin Calvin, Su-Shu Huang, John C. Lilly, Barney Oliver, Carl Sagan and Otto Struve, along with Frank Drake they called themselves 'The Order of the Dolphin."
In preparation for the meeting while trying to form an agenda, he stumbled over an idea that formed an equation.
The Drake equation according to the SETI website is.
N = R* • fp • ne • fl • fi • fc • L
'N = The number of civilizations in The Milky Way Galaxy whose electromagnetic emissions are detectable.
R* =The rate of formation of stars suitable for the development of intelligent life.
fp = The fraction of those stars with planetary systems.
ne = The number of planets, per solar system, with an environment suitable for life.
fl = The fraction of suitable planets on which life actually appears.
fi = The fraction of life bearing planets on which intelligent life emerges.
fc = The fraction of civilizations that develop a technology that releases detectable signs of their existence into space.
L = The length of time such civilizations release detectable signals into space.'
If you answer these seven questions and multiply them, it tells you how many contactable aliens that we would hope to find in our galaxy.
So how many? You ask.
Using the best scientific guesstimates, anywhere from 1000 to 100,000,000 contactable life forms in the milky way.
However this is still just a guess built on a lot of assumptions. The reality is until we contact some aliens we have only one data point to refer to and that is ourselves.
So what does this have to do with science fiction?
Well besides the fact that the Drake Equation has been used as inspiration in everything from short stories to Gene Roddenberry's Star Trek and Michael Crichton's Sphere. Finding new and creative ways to look at the questions Drake's Equation poses, is a good way of generating new ideas.
The science will keep improving as we get to know our universe better. Science is all about the questions, it's your job to write the fiction.
Remember there are three times as many stars in the milky way as there are neurons in a human brain.
Sources
http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Drake_equation
http://www.seti.org/drakeequation
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Tevun-Krus #1 - First Contact
Bilim KurguWelcome to issue #1 of Tevun-Krus, @Ooorah 's monthly e-zine. Herein you'll find short stories, interviews, articles and even a contest. All sorts of Science Fiction goodies, related in this case to the First Contact sub-genre.