One World

28) Earth Model

Posted 15th July 2016

I am a civil engineer. My main experience includes:-

1. The survey of an existing structure to determine the size, position and strength of the various structural elements which comprise the structure;

2. Inspection of the structure for any defects, and environmental threats e.g. scour action due to an adjacent river;

3. In the office, I may create a computer model of the structure using virtual structural elements which replicate the geometry, strength and position of the actual structural elements on the actual structure. However, the virtual strengths are reduced to allow for uncertainty, and an overall model uncertainty factor is applied to conservatively account for unintended differences between the actual structure and the computer model;

4. Then, I subject the virtual model to a regime of load combinations which are 'worst case scenarios', yet probabilistically feasible. Load factors are applied to increase the virtually applied loads to allow for uncertainty and error in the evaluation of the actual loads;

5. I then run a computer analysis of the virtual model of the structure to determine the stresses generated in the structural elements due to the various load combinations;

6. The load carrying capacity of the actual structure is given as the maximum virtual load which will not cause collapse of the virtual structure;

7. The structural survey findings, assessment calculations, analysis method, analysis results, and recommendations for remedial works are set out in a report and issued to the client (often the owner of the structure).

At present, governments and ideas seem to be haphazardly phased in and out, and there's great societal cost when mistakes are made. This has been the case for centuries. However, we now possess (or at least we can acquire if we direct our efforts towards it) the technology to accurately virtually model the physical World: it's natural cycles, interdependent flora and fauna, climate patterns etc. That is, similarly to a civil engineering structure, let's consider the Earth as a structure to be assessed. It is theoretically possible that we can relatively inexpensively experiment with various social models and ideas on a global scale before arriving at a perfect plan, which can then be confidently implemented in the physical World. For example, The Venus Project, under a Resourced-based Economy (RBE), could be designed on a total virtual global scale, tweaked, corrected until perfected before the first actual building is built.

Now, it is possible that the computer model suggested above already exists. That is, you may be in that computer model right now! Some scientists and philosophers seriously consider whether or not this reality is actually a simulation. The arguments given against this idea (in the video mentioned below) is that no computer glitches have been found at the smallest or largest scales. I would suggest this assumes the simulation is either digital in nature; or that the fundamental digital bits are of a measureable size; or that the simulation could not model an entire solar system, or even galaxy, or even the observable Universe, or more. Indeed, the simulation may in fact be a physical, real, World or Solar System or Galaxy or Universe, but bounded by an artificial wall such that the entire model Universe could be physically embraced by its 'alien' creator (unless the creator is itself an infinitely old and perfected computer programme i.e. 'software'). That is, I would suggest that to place limits on the capabilities of a potentially infinitely old technology based on the frontiers of knowledge possessed by 21st century mankind is to vastly underestimate the extent of technological possibilities.

2016 Isaac Asimov Memorial Debate: Is the Universe a Simulation?  

The present idea of the Universe computer simulation is born from human experience. That is, computer models simulating actuality represents the frontier of human capability - it is conceivable as virtual reality, CGI, computer simulations etc. are now within human understanding. However, given infinitely old/matured technology and intelligence, it is conceivable that the real infinite cosmos, and the life which inhabits it, is in the hands of a perfect, all-powerful intelligence. And that that intelligence loves and cares for all the children of the Universe, and has a plan for them. And takes them to a safe and beautiful place, perhaps a place like Earth could be one day, when their terrestrial bodies fail. I can imagine some people may argue that the universe doesn't care about you. I would suggest that such people found their opinions on the assumption that the last time the cosmic dawn broke, about 13.7 billion years ago, was THE beginning,and that there has not been sufficient time to devise cosmic perfection. However, it seems entirely logical to me that the infinite cosmos is in a state of dynamic equilibrium, and as such, has seen an infinite amount of cosmic 'days', and as such, has had sufficient time to realise the perfectly wise way- whatever that way may be.

"Can you feel a change?"