Chapter 16: Chances

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After a few minutes of walking, we arrived at the floating islands. I looked down into the abyss below. Vines hung from the edges, falling down into the void. I limped to a nearby tree and sat down. I gestured for the others to do the same. I picked up May's sword and drew a circle in the dirt.

"So, let's say that this is the arena." I drew two lines, cutting the circle into four equal parts "And these are the different sections" I drew a few curving lines in one section. "Here's the ocean area" I drew a tree in the next section. "Here's the forest" I drew a cactus in the third and an island in the last. "And the desert and the islands" 

Amy picked up a dagger. She seemed to be thinking of something. "The careers wouldn't go to a place where they are at a higher risk. They would be at the highest risk of being attacked at the cornucopia." She drew an x through the center of the circle. "The ocean area has the most water, but it's unlikely that the water is clean. Going onto an island traps them" She drew an x through the curved lines.

May took the sword from me. "The desert is too open. They are open to attacks and don't have any obvious source of water" She drew an x through the cactus.

Elijah pulled out a throwing knife and x-ed out the floating islands. "The islands don't have a clean water source either. They would be dehydrated after fighting so much." He then threw the knife and it stuck straight out of the ground, piercing the tree. "As long as we stay away from there, we should be okay"

Amy said quietly, "The odds aren't in our favor. If we weighed everyone equally, there's only a 7.7% chance that two of us will win."

I responded, "But if we weighed the Careers more heavily, let's say that we treated them like two people each, there's only a 4.4% chance two of us will win" 

Elijah muttered something that sounded like, "Nerd alert." May smacked his arm playfully and I couldn't help but grin. 

My heart skipped a beat as a cannon suddenly went off.

"Okay. That increases our chances. Let's just assume that wasn't a career. That increases our chances to 5%" May was solemn.

"How encouraging. How about two Careers winning?" I ran a few more calculations through my head.

"...23.3%"

"So their chances are nearly five times o-" 

She was cut off as the world changed around us


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